Las Vegas #2 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Justin Haley
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – At Las Vegas, I’m going to view Justin Haley as a high-teens to low-twenties driver. Haley finished within that range this spring at Las Vegas, and I think it generally matches up with his baseline level of performance at high-speed 1.5’s. Kansas is the sister track and a few weeks ago at that venue he finished 19th. At Texas a few weeks back he finished 3rd, but I wouldn’t read into that too much. I’ll note, Haley has been on a hot streak and so far in the post-season over the combined events his average finish is 12.2.
Las Vegas Track History – This spring at Las Vegas, Justin Haley had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race he finished 17th, had a 22.3 average running position and had the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last year in the less competitive #77, Haley had results of 29th and 32nd for the season.
Aric Almirola
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – At Las Vegas, I can’t say I have high expectations for Aric Almirola. Almirola had a solid showing this spring in the Next Gen’s debut at a high-speed 1.5-mile track (6th), but he hasn’t come close to backing that up in 2022 and over the other four races his average finish is 22.0. In the two Playoff races held on this sub-track type, Almirola has a pair of 20’s (21st at Kansas, 24th at Texas). In terms of Total Speed Rankings over all five races held at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Almirola ranks 25th. On Sunday, I think he has high-teens potential, but I can’t say I’m going to be any more optimistic than that.
Las Vegas Track History – Aric Almirola finished 6th this spring at Las Vegas, but in 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished between 17th to 21st. This spring, Almirola finished 6th, had a 16.4 average running position and had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, when it was “Closing Time” he legitimately ran well and with 4 to go before the final caution came out, he was running in 10th. Last fall, Almirola didn’t run well and finished 19th. Additionally, Almirola had a 19.9 average running position and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Almirola didn’t run well, and he didn’t have an incident free race. While he was running in the high 20’s on lap 178 he got into the wall hard which brought out a caution. In 2020, Almirola’s finishes were 17th and 21st.
Ty Dillon
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Depending on how you view Ty Dillon tier wise, he’s been sneaky good at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year. For the season on this sub-track type, Dillon has a 17.8 average finish and he’s one of just 4 drivers who are 5 for 5 at finishing in the top 20. I’ll note, in 3 of those races he’s finished 20th, and that includes both Kansas races and Las Vegas from this spring. On Sunday, look for Ty Dillon to finish around 20th, and perhaps finish marginally better if the attrition rate spikes.
Las Vegas Track History – This spring at Las Vegas in his first “Sin City” race since 2020, Dillon finished 20th, had a 23.8 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 30th best. Over the final two segments he ranked 26th in terms of speed. In fall 2020 in his next most recent start, Dillon finished 26th. In spring 2020 he finished a fool’s gold 10th after taking advantage of a late caution. Overall, at Las Vegas, Dillon has a 22.5 average finish and in 6 of his 8 starts he’s finished in the 20’s.
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