Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Austin Dillon
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Austin Dillon is a strong mid-tier performer at Homestead who should have a solid showing. Homestead has been a good venue for him and over the last six races his average finish is 10.2, and he’s had a result in the top 12 every race. This year at high-wear intermediates, Dillon ran great in the first two races (2nd at Auto Club, 9th at Darlington #1) but then in the Playoffs when he needed to be clutch, Dillon struggled and finished 17th at Darlington #2. At 1.5-mile tracks in 2022, Dillon has frequently been a low double-digit to mid-teens performer and for the season minus Charlotte where he crashed late while battling for the win, Dillon has a 10.8 average finish. On Sunday, I’m going to view him as a low double-digit driver who has a good chance to finish in the top ten.
Homestead Track History – Homestead has been a solid venue for Austin Dillon and outside of his debut, he’s 7 for 7 at finishing between 7th to 14th. Over the last three races, Dillon has a 9.0 average finish, an 11.9 average running position and his driver rating ranks as the 10th best. Last year, Dillon had a solid showing. In the race he finished 12th, had an 11.2 average running position and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Dillon had his best Homestead performance to date despite his race not being incident free. In the race he finished 8th in Stage #2, 7th overall and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes his good finish standout a little more is during a caution around lap 175 while he was in 10th, he got a pit penalty. In the four races prior to that, Dillon had results of 8th, 11th, 11th and 12th.

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AJ Allmendinger 
Homestead Fantasy Spin – AJ Allmendinger will be piloting the #16 at Homestead, and he’s once again likely primed to contend for a good finish. Heading into the weekend, Allmendinger currently has five straight top tens and at “Ovals” since June his average finish is 12.2. I would say last week’s race at Las Vegas is the most similar track he’s competed at this year to Homestead (really not all that similar) and he finished 9th there. On Sunday, I’m going to view him as a teens driver who might just once again sneak in a really good finish.
Homestead Track History – AJ Allmendinger hasn’t raced at Homestead since 2018 on the Cup level, but it hasn’t been a bad track for him and in 6 of his 10 starts he’s finished in the top 15. In 2018 when he most recently raced here, Allmendinger finished 19th. In the two races prior to that his finishes were 14th and 8th.

Daniel Suarez
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Daniel Suarez might just have dark horse potential at Homestead. The #99 has been fast at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year, but a key variable I really like about him is how strong he’s looked at high-wear intermediates. This year at high-wear intermediates, Suarez finished 4th at Auto Club, 10th at Darlington #1 and was also a top ten contender at Darlington #2 until he got a pit penalty. On Sunday, I’m going to view him as a teens driver who’ll be a factor for a top ten.
Homestead Track History – Daniel Suarez doesn’t have a great track record at Homestead, but in 2 of the last 3 races he’s finished in the mid-teens. Other than those two races though, all three of his other results are in the 30’s. Last year, Suarez finished 15th, but take note his average running position was 21st and his Total Speed Ranking was 23rd. I’ll note, he did close solid down the stretch. In 2020 in the junk #96, Suarez finished 31st and in terms of Total Speed Rankings he was the 31st quickest in segments 1-4. In 2019 in the #41, Suarez finished 14th.

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