Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ty Gibbs
Homestead Fantasy Spin – At Homestead, look for Ty Gibbs to be a mid to high-teens driver, but brace yourself to be disappointed and watch him finish in the 20’s. Darlington is the most similar track he’s raced at in 2022, and at that venue in September he finished 15th. I’ll note, since that Darlington race, things have gone south in the results column for him and he hasn’t finished better than 20th.
Homestead Track History – Ty Gibbs has never raced at Homestead, and that includes zero experience even in the Xfinity series, up until he races this Saturday.

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 
Homestead Fantasy Spin – At Homestead, I think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has teens potential. That said, with the way things have played out for him in the 2nd half of the season, unless you view him as a 20’s performer, you’re likely to get burned, but he does have upside. Since Nashville, Stenhouse hasn’t cracked the top 20 at any “oval” of any sort. I will note though, over the last five Homestead races, he’s finished between 13th to 20th. This year at high-wear intermediates, Stenhouse finished in the top ten the first two races (10th at Auto Club, 8th at Darlington #2) and then in Darlington #2 his race wasn’t incident free and he finished a clunker 35th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over those high-wear intermediate events he ranks 15th.
Homestead Track History – At Homestead, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished in the teens in 4 of the last 5 races. Over those five races, Stenhouse sports a 16.6 average finish and a 17.9 average running position. Last year, Stenhouse had his all-time best result here and finished 13th. Additionally, Stenhouse had a 15.8 average running position, the 16th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 17th for speed late in a run. In 2020, Stenhouse was a low 20’s performer. When the checkered flag waved, Stenhouse finished 20th and had a 23.1 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked as the 26th best and over each new segment of the race he improved (27th, 24th, 22nd and 20th). In 2019 he finished 19th, in the two races prior to that he had results of 16th and 15th.

Cole Custer
Homestead Fantasy Spin – This year at 1.5-mile tracks, Cole Custer has typically proven to be a low-twenties driver, so I figure why not believe in that trend again with his four incident free results being between 20th to 22nd. Last year at Homestead, Custer actually looked great and was poised to finish in the top ten, but came home with a misleading result after having a flat with 2 to go, so there is some dark horse potential present for those willing to roll the dice. This year at high-wear intermediates, Custer has a 17.0 average finish and a 17.1 average running position between the combined events.
Homestead Track History – At Homestead, Cole Custer has a pair of low 20’s on his resume. Last year, Custer finished an asterisk mark 23rd, but take note his average running position was 13.8. With 2 to go he was running in 8th, but then he had a tire go down and slowly completed the remaining laps. In 2020, Custer finished 22nd, had a 21.9 average running position, ranked as the 21st Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 25th best. It simply wasn’t a good afternoon for him.

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