Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Homestead! Homestead is a unique symmetrical 1.5-mile track where tire wear is extreme, and pit strategy consists of taking 4 tires every pit stop. The high-line is the fast-line and the best of the best have consistently shined here over the years.
In terms of correlation, I like to study high-wear intermediates (Auto Club and Darlington), and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte and Texas). I will note, Homestead is a pretty unique beast. Here’s High-Wear Intermediate Total Speed Rankings and High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings.
On Saturday, practice was held for Homestead. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Homestead Practice Notes and Homestead 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
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Homestead Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Tyler Reddick
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 11th | 10 Lap Avg – 8th | 15 Lap Avg – 1st | 20 Lap Avg – 1st | 25 Lap Avg – 1st
Homestead Breakdown – At Homestead, Tyler Reddick will be tough to beat. Reddick has never won here on the Cup level, but he’s been impressive and has a 3.0 average finish. In practice, Reddick was fast and he ranked #1 for 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. Last year at Homestead when it was “Closing Time”, Reddick moved up to the top line and then raced his way to a 2nd place finish. In 2020, Reddick was impressive and finished 4th. In our exclusive Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked #1, and was the fastest driver in segments #2 and #4. Across the four segments, Reddick was never lower than 3rd in terms of speed. This year at high-wear intermediates, Reddick has arguably been the best. Reddick had the field covered at Auto Club until he had a flat tire (Led 90 laps, won the opening two segments), and then at Darlington he had results of 2nd and 3rd. At 1.5-mile tracks this year as long as he’s avoided trouble, Reddick’s proven to be one of the better performers and over the four races he’s avoided problems his average finish is 5th.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +700 (Saturday Afternoon, Post Practice)
Homestead Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Homestead Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Homestead Playability Value Chart
2) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 10th | 10 Lap Avg – 9th | 15 Lap Avg – 4th | 20 Lap Avg – 2nd | 25 Lap Avg – 2nd
Homestead Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. The high-line is the fast-line, and Larson has been stellar at running that groove. Larson has never won at Homestead, but he’s certainly thrived. In 4 of his last 6 races at this worn-out oval, Larson has finished between 2nd to 5th. He should be a perfect 6 for 6 at finishing within that range, but two races weren’t incident free. In terms of driver rating over that stretch, Larson ranks #1. Last year when Homestead was visited early in his #5 tenure, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, had a 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 5th. In 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson was a top five contender, but his engine blew up while he was running in 4th with about 55 to go. In 2018, Larson had a great car, but finished an asterisk mark 13th. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps. On lap 193 while he was battling Martin Truex Jr. for 2nd he got into the wall and brought out a caution. In the three Homestead races prior to that, Larson had results of 3rd, 2nd and 5th. This year at high-wear intermediates, Larson has been one of the best. He won at Auto Club, potentially had the best car at Darlington #1 and also had a good car at Darlington #2, but that race was anything but incident free for him. At high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year, Larson has also been one of the better performers and minus Las Vegas #2 where Bubba wrecked him, Larson has a 6.0 average finish. In practice, Larson was strong and ranked 2nd for 20, 25 and 30 lap averages.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +800
3) William Byron
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 6th | 10 Lap Avg – 4th | 15 Lap Avg – 6th | 20 Lap Avg – 4th | 20 Lap Avg – 6th
Homestead Breakdown – Polesitter, William Byron should be on your short list of favorites at Homestead. Byron raced his way to victory lane last year in dominant fashion, and you have to like how well he’s run at high-wear intermediates, and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year. This year at high-wear intermediates, Byron has been a speed standout and his Total Speed Ranking on that sub-track type is the 2nd best. At high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year, Byron has also been one of the better performers, despite quite a few misleading results. In the Playoffs at tracks of this length, Byron has the best average running position (7.1), the 3rd best driver rating and the 5th best average finish (8.7). At Homestead over the last two races, Byron has the best driver rating, a 5.0 average finish and a 6.8 average running position. Last year, Byron was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron started deep in the field in 31st, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (3.9) and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd, but I would really view it as first (others used pit strategy). In 2020, Byron finished 9th. In practice, the #24 was one of the quicker cars over short runs and long runs.
DraftKings $9,200 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Odds To Win +800
