Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Michael McDowell
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, I have low expectations for Michael McDowell, but he has a knack for grinding out good results in 2022, so I wouldn’t count him out from sneaking in another. McDowell hasn’t run well here, and in 7 of the last 8 Martinsville races he’s finished 23rd or worse. In the last two races here, McDowell’s finished in the mid 20’s. In the Playoffs minus the Roval where he ran well but was swept up in the late demolition derby car action, McDowell has an 11.7 average finish.
Martinsville Track History – Martinsville has never been a bright spot on the schedule for Michael McDowell. He’s only cracked the top 15 once over his 23 starts, and in 8 of the last 9 races he’s finished 21st or worse. Since 2020 minus spring 2021 where he was caught up in a “Big One”, McDowell has a 23.25 average finish. This spring, McDowell had a mid-twenties day. In the race he finished 25th, had a 23.6 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, McDowell had a similar performance and finished 26th. In that race, McDowell had a 27th place average running position and had the 28th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, McDowell finished 31st after being a victim in the lap 385 “Big One.” On lap 376 which was shortly before his demise, he was running in 19th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, McDowell ranked 26th.
Ty Gibbs
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Ty Gibbs has struggled on the Cup level in the Playoffs, and I have a hard time expecting anything good out of him. He might finish in the teens, but I think it’s a lot more likely he finishes in the 20’s. In 4 of the last 5 races heading into the weekend, Gibbs has finished between 20th to 22nd.
Martinsville Track History – On the Xfinity level, Ty Gibbs has been solid at Martinsville and in 2 of his 3 races he’s finished in the top ten. He should be 3 for 3, but last fall wasn’t incident free. This spring under the lights, Gibbs led 197 laps and finished 8th. Last fall, Gibbs finished 3rd in Stage #2 but his race wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 27th. In spring 2021 in his first “paper clip” start he finished 4th and led 28 laps.
Cole Custer
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – If you’re looking for a dark horse at Martinsville, consider Cole Custer. His track record is quite bad but he was a legit top five contender this spring until his evening went downhill in the final Stage following a pit penalty. Overall, at “The Paper Clip”, Custer has finished 18th or worse in 4 of his 5 starts. On Sunday, I’m going to view him as a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville over the last three races, Cole Custer has finished between 18th to 23rd and has a 20.6 average finish. This spring, Custer looked great and was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Custer started 3rd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2 but then during the Stage #2 caution a tire got away from the #41 crew and that resulted in a penalty which dropped him to the back. While he was back in the pack, he simply never advanced in the running order. Last fall, Custer was a low 20’s performer. In the race he finished 23rd, had a 21.4 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, on lap 357 he spun while running in 18th, but it’s hard to say that impacted him too much. In spring 2021, Custer came home 18th, but I’ll note attrition bumped him up a little. Additionally, Custer had a 24.3 average running position and the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Custer had his best Martinsville performance and finished 13th.
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