Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Post Practice Predictions

This weekend, NASCAR will be battling it out at Martinsville to see who’ll compete for the championship at Phoenix. Martinsville is the oldest, shortest and slowest track on the circuit, but it will prove why NASCAR is a “Contact Sport.” Desperate drivers do desperate things and battling it out for the championship is on the line for the Playoff drivers.

In terms of the championship aspect at Martinsville which can impact fantasy, Joey Logano is locked into the finale, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain are looking relatively safe as long as they show up and don’t have a collapse and everyone else basically needs to race hard and go all out. Bell and Briscoe are essentially in “Must-Win” situations.

On Saturday, practice was held for Martinsville. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Martinsville Practice Notes and Martinsville 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Martinsville Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Chase Elliott
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 5th | 10 Lap Avg – 5th | 15 Lap Avg – 4th | 20 Lap Avg – 3rd | 25 Lap Avg – 4th
Martinsville Breakdown – Chase Elliott is a super-elite performer at Martinsville who’ll be a factor. Elliott was fast this spring, and in recent races at “The Paper Clip” he ranks among the best. Over the last five Martinsville races, Elliott has the best driver rating by a healthy margin, the best average running position (4.2), he’s averaged leading the most laps per race (142.2) and his average finish is 6.8, despite back-to-back misleading results. This spring, Elliott was a standout performer but finished 10th. In the race, Elliott won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 185 laps but then during the Stage #2 caution he was beat off pit road, and the #9 just wasn’t as good in traffic. Additionally, Elliott had a 3.9 average running position, the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking but ranked 12th for speed late in a run. Last fall, Elliott had a stellar showing, but finished an asterisk mark 16th after getting spun out while running in 3rd by a desperate Brad Keselowski in the closing laps. In the race, Elliott won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 289 laps, had a 3.3 average running position, had the best Green Flag Speed and the best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Elliott had a great car. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position, the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In 2020, Elliott raced his way to victory lane in the fall (Led 236 laps) and finished 5th in the spring. In practice, the #9 was fast and Elliott ranked in the top 5 in terms of every lap count average ranking from 5 to 30 lap averages.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +550 (Saturday, post qualifying)

Martinsville Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Martinsville Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Martinsville Playability Value Chart

2) Ryan Blaney
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 1st | 10 Lap Avg – 1st | 15 Lap Avg – 1st | 20 Lap Avg – 1st | 25 Lap Avg – 2nd
Martinsville Breakdown – Ryan Blaney is an elite performer at “The Paper Clip” who’ll need to come up big. Blaney’s currently -18 below the cutline, so there’s no question he’ll have to race hard and dial up his level of aggressiveness. Some good news for Blaney is that he’s one of the best in the business here, despite being winless. In 6 of the last 9 Martinsville races, he’s finished in the top 5. Since 2019, Blaney has a series best 5.6 average finish, a 6.9 average running position and he’s had a result in the top 11 every race. This spring, Blaney had a great car. In the race, Blaney finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, had a 6.4 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. Last fall under Playoff pressure, Blaney didn’t look good but stumbled home to finish 11th. In spring 2021, Blaney had one of the best cars but finished an asterisk mark 11th. In the race, Blaney won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 157 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run but finished a misleading 11th. While he was running in 2nd around lap 450, Blaney got a pit penalty when equipment left his pit box. In the four Martinsville races prior to that, Blaney had results of 2nd, 2nd, 5th and 4th. In practice, Blaney was one of the best, as you can see in the speed rankings above.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +600

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 12th | 10 Lap Avg – 10th | 15 Lap Avg – 9th| 20 Lap Avg – 9th
Martinsville Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is always tough to beat at Martinsville and on Sunday with a berth to the “Final Four” at stake, you better believe he’ll step up to the plate and be a factor. At Martinsville, Hamlin’s one of the premiere performers. He’s a five-time winner and in 48% of his starts he’s finished in the top 5. In recent races at Martinsville outside of “Night Races” where he’s been abysmal, Hamlin’s without question been one of the best. This spring in the “Night Race”, Hamlin missed the setup in a major way and finished 28th. He simply never ran well, and even got lapped in Stage #1. Personally, I’m not going to hit the panic button about that. Last fall, Hamlin started in the rear of the field and nearly raced his way to victory lane until he got spun out at the end while leading which led to his 24th. Also in the race, Hamlin finished 5th in Stage #2 and led 103 laps. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking but take note over the last three segments he had speed rankings of 5th, 3rd and 1st. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great car, but was outraced right at the very end by Truex. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had the best driver rating, the best Total Speed Ranking, led 276 laps and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed by segment, Hamlin ranked 1,2,1 and then 2.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +700