Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Kyle Busch
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Phoenix will be Kyle Busch’s JGR farewell race, and I think he has a good chance to go out on a high-note. That said, I could also see a wadded up #18 and a very angry Kyle Busch at the end of the day. After Martinsville, it’s a real coin flip now. At Phoenix, Busch is one of the best, and in 2022 at shorter-flat tracks, Busch has a series best 7.8 average finish and the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday, I would view Busch as a risky top ten contender.
Phoenix Track History – Kyle Busch has been a fantasy ace at Phoenix. Since 2015 (last 14 races), Busch has 2-wins, 7 results in the top 3, 12 results in the top 7 and only one result lower than 11th. Since 2020 minus spring 2021 which wasn’t incident free, Busch has a 7.0 average finish. Currently, Busch has back-to-back 7th’s. This spring in the desert, Busch had to race hard to earn his good result with a late rally. In the last Stage during a caution with about 20 to go, Busch left pit road in 10th, but was busted speeding on pit road. With 3 to go, Busch was back in 17th. In the race, Busch had an 11.5 average running position and the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2021, Busch finished 8th in Stage #2, 7th overall, was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Busch had all sorts of problems and finished 25th. In the race, Busch finished 6th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 he got an uncontrolled tire penalty. Then in the final Stage he made an unexpected pit stop and spun into the wall. “Performance Wise”, I would say he was maybe around 10th place good. In fall 2020, Busch finished 11th. In the five races prior to that, Busch had results of 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

Aric Almirola
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Aric Almirola is a great mid-tier option at Phoenix who should prominently be on your radar. Phoenix has been a great track for Almirola, and racing at shorter-flat tracks has been a key strength for the #10 team. Almirola’s had some clunker results on this sub-track this year, but in 3 of the 5 races he’s finished in the top 12. At Richmond, the most recent shorter-flat track visited, Almirola finished 8th. In 2021 on this sub-track type, Almirola had a 7.6 average finish. On Sunday, look for Almirola to be a top ten contender.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix has been a great venue for Aric Almirola and in 9 of the last 10 races he’s finished in the top 13. You probably can’t say that about him anywhere else. This spring, Almirola was a solid low double-digit driver. In the race he finished 12th, had a 14.4 average running position, had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 11th for speed late in a run. Last fall, Almirola had a strong showing. In the race he started 18th, finished 6th, had an 11.4 average running position, had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. What makes his good finish even more notable is that on lap 160 he was caught speeding on pit road. In spring 2021, Almirola had a solid showing and finished 11th. In the race, Almirola started in 32nd, finished around 14th at the end of Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, but then during the Stage #2 caution he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him to the back. In 2020, Almirola’s results were 8th and 13th.

Alex Bowman
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Phoenix is Alex Bowman’s home track, and he’s long been a fantasy enigma to me there. Back in fall 2016 when Bowman piloted the #88 in place of an injured Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bowman won the pole, finished 6th, led 194 laps and earned the best driver rating. Since then, Bowman hasn’t led a single lap and has a best result of 13th. In 2022 at shorter-flat tracks, Bowman has the 18th best Total Speed Ranking and minus New Hampshire where he crashed his average finish is 13.8. At Phoenix, I’m going to view Bowman as a teen’s performer. I’ll note, I think there’s a chance he’ll have some “Good Return Race Mojo” perhaps on his side.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Alex Bowman has five straight results between 13th to 18th. Over that stretch since 2020, Bowman has a 15.0 average finish and a 14.5 average running position. This spring, Bowman finished 14th, had a 10.3 average running position and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Bowman didn’t have a race to brag about. When the checkered flag waved, he finished 18th, had an 18.5 average running position, was the 18th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Bowman finished 13th, had a 17.2 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Bowman didn’t have an incident free race. In the event he was spun into the wall on lap 46 while he was running in the high-teens and got some notable damage.

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