Phoenix Season Finale 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be crowning a new champion in the Phoenix Season Finale 500! The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the drivers who’ll be battling it out in the winner take all (highest finisher) battle royal are Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain. I joke the championship four have an extra +100 horsepower, and for whatever reason championship contenders always seem to step it up to the next level in the season finale, at least so far. At Phoenix since the season finale has been held here, they finished 1,2,3 and 5 last year, and 1,2,3 and 4 in 2020. On Sunday, I expect them all to be fast once again.
On Friday night, an extended practice session was held for Phoenix. Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes and Phoenix 5,10,15,20 and 25 lap average speed cheat sheet.
Here’s Phoenix Qualifying Results.
Phoenix Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Joey Logano
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 8th | 10 Lap Average – 5th | 15 Lap Average – 7th | 20 Lap Average – 3rd
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – 2022 started with the #22 team in victory lane, and it could very well end the same way. Joey Logano and the #22 crew have been focusing ahead to Phoenix since their Las Vegas win, so you better believe they’ll be strong. When Logano won the 2018 title, he also won the opening race in the Round of 8, and then focused ahead to the championship finale. On Sunday, Logano will start on the pole. So far in Phoenix championship races, the pole winner is 2 for 2 at winning (Elliott started on the pole in 2020, but technically started in the back). At Phoenix, Joey Logano has performed at a super-elite level. He’s a two-time winner and over the last five races, Logano has three results in the top 3, a series best 5.0 average finish, the 2nd best average running position (6.0), he’s averaged leading the 2nd most laps per race (66.4) and his driver rating is the 2nd best. This spring, Logano had a solid showing. In the race he finished 8th, had an 8.5 average running position and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Logano finished 11th, but I think he was operating in “Vacation Mode” to an extent. In the three Phoenix races prior to that, Logano had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. This year at shorter-flat tracks where there’s correlation, Logano has been one of the best. Logano raced his way to victory lane at Gateway, which is arguably the most similar, and over the combined events his Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 2nd best. In practice, the #22 was stout and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be a factor.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +300 (Saturday following qualifying)
2) Chase Elliott
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Chase Elliott
Practice Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 11th | 10 Lap Average – 4th | 15 Lap Average – 2nd | 20 Lap Average – 10th
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is one of the premiere performers at Phoenix, and you better believe the #9 team will be locked and loaded with a championship on the line. At Phoenix over the last five races, Elliott has 1-win, the best driver rating, he’s averaging leading the most laps per race (78.0), has the best average running position (5.9) and he’s tied for the 2nd best average finish (5.8). This spring, Elliott was a top 3 performer but finished an asterisk mark 11th. In the race, Elliott finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 3.9 average running position, led 50 laps and earned the 3rd best driver rating. Late cautions hurt him, and then with 9 to go while running in 7th, Elliott spun. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked 1st, with his speed over the segments being 4th, 1st, 1st and then 4th. In terms of speed late in a run, Elliott ranked 2nd. Last fall when Elliott was up for title contention, he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 94 laps, had a 2.5 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Elliott started in the back, finished 5th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2 and then 5th when the checkered flag waved. In fall 2020, Elliott started in the back, led 153 laps, was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking, had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Elliott ranks 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and his last two results on this sub-track type are 2nd (New Hampshire) and 5th (Richmond #2). In practice, Chase Elliott was perceived as the best of the championship 4 from the broadcast booth and his 15-lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
DraftKings $10.900 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +250
3) Christopher Bell
Start 17th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Practice Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 21st | 10 Lap Average – 31st
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, Christopher Bell will be tough to beat. Bell has proven he has the “Clutch Gene”, and I think there’s no question he’s capable of rising to the occasion in the Phoenix Finale. In the Playoffs when facing a “Must Win” situation, Bell’s 2 for 2 at reaching victory lane. When it comes to racing at shorter-flat tracks, Bell is without question one of the best. Since 2021 on this track type minus this spring at Phoenix, Bell is 9 for 9 at finishing in the top ten and has a 5th place average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix, Bell’s average finish is 4.5. In the last two races held on this sub-track type, Bell has results of 1st (New Hampshire) and 2nd (Richmond #2). At Phoenix, Christopher Bell has been solid. This spring, the #20 showed potential, but Bell didn’t have an incident free race. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, but then during the Stage #1 caution he had a slow stop that dropped him from 6th to 21st. Then later in Stage #2 on lap 119 while he was running around the mid-teens, Bell had a flat tire and spun which doomed him to a 26th. In 2021 in the desert, Bell had a pair of 9th place finishes. In practice, Bell was clearly the least competitive of the championship four with his average speeds well down the leaderboard. Personally, I wouldn’t hit the panic button. We’ve all seen what Bell’s capable of on this track type, and I have no doubt he’ll be a factor on Sunday.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +500
