Daytona Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings
William Byron
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – William Byron is a strong superspeedway performer, and in the Daytona 500, I think he’ll be a factor if he can avoid bad luck. Byron’s a former Daytona winner (summer 2020), he’s also a previous Duel 150 winner, so he clearly knows how to find victory lane at big superspeedways. At Talladega, the other big superspeedway, Byron’s average finish there since 2020 minus a wreck in fall 2021 is 8.8. The big question regarding Byron is can he avoid bad luck, which has been especially bad since his win in summer 2020 and over the last four races, his average finish is 33.75. If Byron can avoid bad luck, I think he has a ton of upside in the Daytona 500.
Daytona Track History – As you read above, Daytona has been brutal to William Byron since his summer 2020 win. Since then, Byron has finished 9 or more laps down every race and has a 33.75 average finish. Last summer, Byron finished just outside the top ten in Stage #2, was running in 10th on lap 100, but then on lap 101 he was caught up in a wreck that marked the end of his race leading to his 34th. Last February, Byron looked great, but he was caught up in the “Keselowski Caused Early Big One” which led to his 38th. On the very lap of his demise, Byron was running in 2nd. In summer 2021, Byron was sporty, but he crashed late. In the race, Byron led 12 laps, finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then crashed with 15 laps to go which led to his 37th. In the 2021 Daytona 500, I think Byron likely had a great car, but he crashed in the lap 13 “Big One.” He was able to continue, but the #24 was severely wounded and it led to his 26th place finish. In summer 2020, Byron had a great car and raced his way to victory lane following a late restart. In the race, Byron finished 7th in Stage #1, led the 3rd most laps (24) and was legitimately running in 3rd with 18 laps to go before all the late cautions started. In the 2020 Daytona 500, Byron was strong. Byron won his Duel 150 that year and was running in 4th until Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wrecked him on lap 58 which led to his 40th. In summer 2019, Byron finished 2nd.
Christopher Bell
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Christopher Bell runs well at Daytona, but something always happens, so the results column is quite ugly, and he’ll likely have a good amount of “Out Of Sync Potential” as a result. In the results column at Daytona, Bell’s 6 for 6 in terms of coming home with a misleading result and his average finish is 25.3, with him finishing 32nd or worse over the last three. In terms of “Performance” at Daytona, Bell has actually been pretty good and in 2022 around the time of his demise he was running around 7th in both races. If Bell can avoid trouble, which has never happened to him in a points paying race here, then I would look for him to potentially be a factor. He’s certainly due for some good luck at Daytona.
Daytona Track History – Christopher Bell has been solid at Daytona, but his ugly track record doesn’t do him justice. In 2022 at Daytona, Bell was 2 for 2 at crashing in Stage #1 while running in the top ten. Last summer, Bell was running in 7th on lap 28, but then on lap 30 he was involved in a multi-car accident which marked the end of his race leading to his 36th. In the 2022 Daytona 500, Bell looked strong and showed potential, but he was a lap 62 “Big One” crash victim which led to his 34th. On that very lap at the time of his demise, Bell was running in 7th. In summer 2021, Bell ran well but crashed late and finished 32nd. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #2, led 8 laps and was running in 8th with 10 laps to go until the schedule distance. A few laps later though he was caught up in the carnage which led to his poor result. In the 2021 Daytona 500, Bell had a great car but finished a misleading 16th. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, led 32 laps, but then in the second half of the race adversity surfaced. On lap 111 shortly after a pit cycle, Bell had contact with Stenhouse and got quite a bit of damage. Just prior to that he was in 7th. Then later on lap 180, Bell made an unexpected pit stop for “Fuel issues.” On lap 175 just prior to that he was running in 15th.
Brad Keselowski
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – The season is just starting, but Brad Keselowski will already be going for the “Hail Mary” in the Daytona 500. Big superspeedways represent his best opportunity for reaching victory lane, and I fully expect Keselowski to be driving with a “Win or bust” mentality in ultra-aggressive mode. In terms of pure drafting talent, I view Keselowski as one of the premiere performers on this track type (7-time superspeedway winner), despite his track record being mostly brutal for an extended period of time. Overall at Daytona, Keselowski has had a DNF in 44% of his starts. Last February at Daytona, the #6 had standout speed and in the Daytona 500 if he can drive a smart race, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a factor.
Daytona Track History – Brad Keselowski is a former Daytona winner (summer 2016) but overall, it ranks as his worst track in terms of average finish (23.1) among venues visited more than two times. Since winning in summer 2016, Keselowski only has 2 top tens, and in 8 of the 12 races since, he’s finished 27th or worse. Last summer at Daytona, you really can’t read into Keselowski’s afternoon since he completed just 31 laps, crashed and finished 35th. On lap 28 shortly before his demise he was running in 14th. In February 2022, Keselowski was one of the best. In the Daytona 500 he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led a race high 67 laps, had a race best 4.8 average running position, had the 2nd best driver rating and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. At the start of overtime, Keselowski was running in 4th. In his Duel 150 leading up to the “Great American Race”, Keselowski raced his way to victory lane. In summer 2021, Keselowski was caught up in late carnage that led to his 33rd. He drove a conservative race, and trouble still caught up to him. In the 2021 Daytona 500, Keselowski had a great car, but on the final lap while he was making a pass for the win, he had contact with Logano and crashed. In the race, Keselowski started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished 10th in Stage #2 and finished 13th overall thanks to the high-attrition rate.
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