Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a two-time winner at big superspeedways who should be on your radar. He’s anything but safe, but in terms of pure superspeedway racing talent, he can compete with the best. At superspeedways, Stenhouse drives with an intensity unknown to mankind and is always looking to make something happen. That said, he’s often been the author of his own demise because of his aggressive driving style. Last year on this track type, Stenhouse was extremely racy at both Daytona races but for the season on this track type over the combined events, Stenhouse had a 25.5 average finish and was the only driver who competed in all four races who failed to finish in the top 20, once! Look for Stenhouse to be a checkers or wreckers’ driver but lean more towards the wrecker’s end of the spectrum.
Daytona Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. raced his way to victory lane in summer 2017 at Daytona, but in the ten races since, he’s failed to finish in the top ten and has a 22.5 average finish. Last year at Daytona, Stenhouse had a 25.0 average finish between the combined events but take note his driver rating was the 5th best. Last summer, Stenhouse looked to be a top ten contender, but he was a victim in the “Rain Big One.” In the race, Stenhouse finished 8th in Stage #1 and 9th in Stage #2. At the time of the “Rain Big One” coming out, Stenhouse was racing in 9th. In last year’s Daytona 500, Stenhouse was a serious contender to win but crashed late. In the race, Stenhouse finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 16 laps, was the race leader on lap 189 before late mayhem ensued but then on lap 195, he crashed. In summer 2021, Stenhouse was racy but finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #2, but then with 4 laps to go he was swept up in the carnage of a late “Big One.” For the evening, Stenhouse’s 9.9 average running position was the 4th best.

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Noah Gragson
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – In the Daytona 500, Noah Gragson will be making his #42 Chevy debut. On the Cup level at Daytona, Gragson doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of, but I think he’s worth a roll of the dice. Gragson escaped with a 5th last summer, and nearly got a top ten in the 2022 Daytona 500 before crashing late. In 2022 at big superspeedways, Gragson competed in all four races and minus last year’s Daytona 500, his average finish was 14.7.
Daytona Track History – Last year at Daytona in the #62, Noah Gragson wasn’t that bad. Last summer, Gragson dodged fatal damage in the “Big One’s” and parlayed that into a 5th place finish. I will note, Gragson’s average running position for the afternoon was 23.8. In last year’s Daytona 500 in his Cup debut, Gragson looked solid and was running in 9th on lap 189, but then on lap 190 he was swept up in late carnage that relegated him to a 31st.

Jimmie Johnson
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Jimmie Johnson, the 7-time champ and the winner of the 2013 and 2006 Daytona 500’s will be making his Cup return in the Daytona 500 driving for Legacy Motor Club, of which he’s now a part owner. Johnson has been retired from Cup competition for two years, and he’s never driven the Next Gen car except during a test at Phoenix but personally, I don’t think either of those variables are factors. Johnson is arguably the best in the history of the sport and driving at Daytona isn’t exactly the most challenging track. Last year on this track type, teammate Erik Jones was extremely competitive, so there should be no question regarding the level of equipment he’s piloting. At Daytona, I would view Johnson as a risky prospect who has upside.
Daytona Track History – At Daytona, Jimmie Johnson is a 3-time winner, but things haven’t been great for him in recent races. In 7 of his last 10 races at this “Wild Card” venue he’s finished outside the top 15. In 2020 when he most recently raced here, Johnson finished 17th in the summer and then crashed in the 500 which led to his 35th. In 2019, Johnson swept the top ten with results of 3rd (summer) and 9th (Daytona 500). In 4 of his 5 Daytona starts prior to that, Johnson finished 23rd or worse.

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