Auto Club Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Kyle Larson
Auto Club Bottom Line – At Auto Club, look for the road to victory lane to go thru Kyle Larson. Larson’s the defending Auto Club champ, and in 50% of his starts at this 2.0-mile oval he’s finished in the top 2. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Kyle Larson was the class of the field. Neither Darlington race was incident free for Larson (looked competitive in both), but he emerged victorious here, and at Homestead which I view to be the most similar track, Larson smoked the field and won in dominant fashion. In 2021 at high-wear intermediates, Larson had a 5.6 average finish for the season. Last year in terms of applicable speed stats, Larson ranked 4th for Total Speed Rankings over all the races held at intermediate tracks and ranked 5th in terms of High-Wear Intermediate Track Total Speed Rankings.
Auto Club Track History – Kyle Larson, the defending Auto Club champ is always a factor at his home track. Larson’s a two-time winner and in 50% of his starts (4 of 8), he’s finished in the top 2. Last year, Kyle Larson was stout and late in the race he had the field covered. In the race, Larson started in the back, finished 5th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 28 laps and then of course proceeded to race his way to victory lane. Of the final 20 laps, Larson led 19 of them. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking, but take note in the final segment, the #5 was the fastest car on the track. In 2020 at Auto Club, Larson likely had a great car, but he slammed into the wall on lap 34 after contact from Hamlin. On lap 27 which was shortly before his problem and his planned green flag pit stop, Larson was running in 6th. Due to his problem, Larson finished 21st. In 2019, Larson finished 12th, but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result. On lap 59, Stenhouse Jr. spun into him, and Larson got a good bit of right-side damage after contact. At that time, Larson was running near the top ten. In the two Auto Club races prior to that, Larson had results of 2nd (2018) and 1st (2017, led 110 laps).
Kyle Busch
Auto Club Bottom Line – Kyle Busch has been a super-elite performer at Auto Club, and now that he’s piloting the #8 which was arguably the best last year, look for Busch to be a factor. Last year’s race wasn’t incident free for Busch, but in the three races prior to that, Busch had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so there’s no doubting his Auto Club prowess. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Busch was one of the best, “Performance Wise”, but only Homestead in the fall where he finished 9th was incident free. At Auto Club, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Auto Club Track History – At Auto Club, Kyle Busch has performed at a super-elite level. At this worn-out 2.0-mile oval, Busch is a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 48% of the time, and in the top ten 69% of the time. Since 2011, Busch has finished in the top 3, 70% of the time. Last year, Busch’s afternoon was far from incident free but by some miracle he finished 14th. In the race, Busch started 3rd but then on lap 15 while running in 11th, Busch got into a track seam and spun which brought out a caution. Right after that, Busch told his team that his car was coming to him. Then on lap 37 when he rebounded back up to 14th, Busch told his team he was out of water, and he then came to pit road which dropped him at least 3 laps down which created a long afternoon. In the three Auto Club races prior to that, Busch had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd, had a series best 2.0 average finish, a series best 4.5 average running position, the best driver rating and he averaged leading 65.3 laps per race. In 2020, Busch finished 2nd. In 2019, Busch was by far the class of the field. In the race he won the opening two Stages, led 134 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In 2018, Busch finished 3rd.
Joey Logano
Auto Club Bottom Line – Look for Joey Logano to be tough to beat at Auto Club. Auto Club has been a great track for Logano over the years, and he’s consistently performed at a high-level having finished between 2nd to 7th, in 6 of the last 7 races. Another attribute I like about Logano is his prowess at high-wear intermediates. In 2022 on this sub-track type he ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings and in 3 of the 4 races he finished in the top five, including a win at Darlington in the spring. Last year between the two big 2.0-mile ovals, Logano’s 4.5 average finish ranked as the 3rd best. At Auto Club, look for Logano to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Auto Club Track History – Joey Logano is a strong performer at Auto Club who ranks among the best. In 6 of the last 7 races at this west coast track, Logano’s finished between 2nd to 7th. Over the last four Auto Club races, Logano has the 2nd best average finish (6.0), the best average running position (6.1) and his driver rating ranks as the 2nd best. Last year at Auto Club, Logano finished 7th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 5.4 average running position, led 14 laps and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note before late cautions started to come out, Logano was running in 2nd. In terms of speed stats, Logano was tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2020, Logano finished an outlier 12th. Additionally in 2020, Logano had a 10.5 average running position, the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the four Auto Club races prior to that, Logano had a 4.0 average finish. In 2019, Logano had his best performance at this worn out 2.0-mile oval. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In the four races prior to that, Logano had results of 5th, 5th, 4th and 7th.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier
