Auto Club Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Auto Club Bottom Line – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished 10th last spring at Auto Club, but I can’t say I like his odds to repeat the feat. The #47 showed a lot of “Hopium” at intermediate tracks last year and were often at their best, but ultimately on this track type from Michigan until the conclusion of the season (last 6-races), Stenhouse had a 27.2 average finish, with the only drivers worse than him being BJ McLeod, Cody Ware and JJ Yeley. I’ll note, Stenhouse was overall pretty solid at high-wear intermediates last year having finished in the top ten twice and in the top 15 in 3 of the 4 races. At Homestead which I view to be the most similar track, Stenhouse finished 15th last fall. At Auto Club, I would view Stenhouse as a mid to high-teens driver but be prepared to get burned.
Auto Club Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. only had 5-top tens in 2022, and his only one not part of a four-race top 10-streak in late spring happened here at Auto Club. Currently at Auto Club over the last four races, Stenhouse is 4 for 4 at finishing between 10th to 20th and his average finish is 15.5. Last year at this worn out 2.0-mile oval, Stenhouse started 17th, finished 10th in Stage #1, finished around 17th in Stage #2, had an 11th place average running position and then finished 10th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Stenhouse ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run and 8th for Total Speed Rankings. In the three Auto Club races prior to that, Stenhouse had results of 20th (2020), 14th (2019) and 18th (2018).
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Ty Gibbs
Auto Club Bottom Line – Ty Gibbs didn’t exactly set the world on fire last year in 23XI equipment, but now that he’s in his own ride the #54 under JGR’s roof, watch out because I think he’ll be a lot more competitive. Personally, I would just essentially view all of his starts last year at high-speed intermediate tracks as “Track Time Earned.” My personal theory for the Xfinity series champ is that last year he was largely given “Kurt Busch Setups”, and not really setups that would work for him. At Auto Club, I’m going to view Gibbs as a teens driver but note he’s pretty risky.
Auto Club Track History – Ty Gibbs had a solid showing last year in the lower series at Auto Club in his track debut and finished 13th. In the race, Gibbs finished 5th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 and had a 9.9 average running position.
Noah Gragson
Auto Club Bottom Line – Noah Gragson will have dark horse fantasy potential at Auto Club for those looking to roll the dice. His teammate, Erik Jones unloaded a hot rod last year (finished 3rd, best driver rating) and Gragson has proven his acumen at running the highline, which is the fast line around Auto Club. That said, Gragson didn’t exactly set the world on fire last year at high-speed intermediate tracks on the Cup level and was typically a high-teens to low-twenties driver. At Homestead last fall in the #48, Gragson finished an uninspiring 25th. On Sunday, I’m going to view the rookie as a mid to high-teens driver and lean more towards the higher end of that range.
Auto Club Track History – Noah Gragson has no Cup starts on his resume at Auto Club. In the Xfinity series though, the Legacy MC rookie has a few races under his belt. Last year in the lower series, Gragson finished 4th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 25 laps and finished runner-up. In his other two lower series starts, Gragson has results of 26th (2020) and 12th (2019).
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