Auto Club Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be saying farewell to Fontana. This will be the final race held at this worn-out D-shaped 2.0-mile oval, and the short track that will take its place won’t be ready until at least 2025. Fontana put on a good show last year, and I’m guessing the racing will once again be great this year.
On Saturday, practice and qualifying were rained out. The first time the cars will see the track will be when the green flag waves. There is obviously going to be question marks heading into Sunday without practice and qualifying, but key variables I would want in a pick are …
1) A driver who demonstrated prowess at high-wear intermediates in 2022 (Total Speed Rankings)
2) A good Auto Club track record. It’s a high-wear track so drivers are a difference maker.
3) A driver who demonstrated prowess at intermediate tracks in 2022 (Total Speed Rankings)
4) Starting position, but I’ll note it’s not overly important.
Here’s the Auto Club Starting Lineup.
Auto Club Fantasy NASCAR Full Field Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 15th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – At Auto Club, look for Kyle Larson to be the driver to beat as he kick starts his “2023 Revenge Tour.” Larson is a two-time Auto Club winner, and his top 2 finish rate over his career is 50%! Last year at high-wear intermediates where the correlation is high, Larson was arguably the best. Neither Darlington race was incident free for him (looked competitive in both), but he emerged victorious here, and at Homestead. Additionally at Homestead which I view to be the most similar track, Larson earned a perfect driver rating, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer at Auto Club. He’s the defending champ and as you read above, his top 2 finish rate is 50% (4 of 8). Last year, Larson was stout. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 28 laps and then of course raced his way to victory lane. When the trophy was on the line, nobody was better. Larson was the fastest driver on the track over the final segment and led 19 of the final 20 laps. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Larson likely had a great car, but he slammed into the wall on lap 34 after contact from Hamlin. On lap 27 which was shortly before his problem, Larson was running in 6th. Due to his problem, Larson finished 21st. In 2019 when he finished 12th, take note Ricky Stenhouse Jr. spun into him fairly early and that greatly impacted him. In the two Auto Club races prior to that, Larson had results of 2nd (2018) and 1st (2017, led 110 laps).
Last Four Auto Club Finishes – 1st, 5th, 12th and 2nd
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +650
2) Kyle Busch
Start 21st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Quick Scoop – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Auto Club who’ll be a favorite. His track record is impeccable, and he’s now piloting the #8 which was the class of the field last year, so look out! Over Busch’s last three incident free races at Auto Club his results are 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So far in 2023, you have to love how well he’s run in his new ride. On Sunday, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – At Auto Club, Kyle Busch is arguably the premiere performer. Busch is a 4-time winner, and in 7 of his last 10 races he’s finished in the top 3. Last year, Busch had problems throughout the race but somehow squeaked out a 14th place finish. In the three Auto Club races prior to that, Busch had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd, had a series best 2.0 average finish, a series best 4.5 average running position, the best driver rating and he averaged leading 65.3 laps per race. In 2020, Busch finished 2nd. In 2019, Busch was by far the class of the field. In the race he won the opening two Stages, led 134 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In 2018, Busch finished 3rd.
Last Four Auto Club Finishes – 14th, 2nd, 1st and 3rd
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading – Auto Club Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Auto Club Scoring Projections, FanDuel Auto Club Scoring Projections
3) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 14th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Quick Scoop – At Auto Club, Martin Truex Jr. should be near the top of your radar. At this worn out 2.0-mile oval, Truex “Performance Wise” has been good enough to win 3 of the 4 races since 2018. In the 2022 Playoffs at high-wear intermediates, Truex probably should’ve won Darlington #2, and at Homestead he was top 2 good until his downfall on pit road late. In terms of 2022 Total Speed Rankings at applicable track types, Truex ranked #1 for the season across all intermediate tracks visited, and #3 in terms of high tire-wear intermediate tracks. With Truex off to a strong start so far in 2022, you can definitely count on him to be a contender.
Auto Club Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex has performed at an extremely high-level at Auto Club. Truex’s last three races haven’t been incident free, but “Performance Wise”, I think he’s been good enough to have won 3 of the last 4. Last year, Truex finished 13th, but I wouldn’t read into that result too much since he slid into the wall about a quarter thru the race while running 8th. In 2020, Truex easily had a top five car, but he walked away with an asterisk mark 14th. In the race, Truex started 38th, finished 5th in Stage #2 and was running in 2nd on lap 161, but at that time a pit crew member had a hand injury which led to an incredibly slow pit stop which ruined his afternoon. In 2019, Truex had a great car, but finished an asterisk mark 8th. In the race, Truex started deep in the field in 27th, but quickly advanced in the running order. On lap 59 while he was running near the top five, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. spun into Truex Jr. and the #19 got a good amount of right rear damage. In 2018, Truex put on a display of domination. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned a perfect driver rating, led a race high 125 laps, finished 1st and had an 11.6 second margin of victory. In 2017, Truex led 73 laps and finished 4th.
Last Four Auto Club Finishes – 13th, 14th, 8th and 1st
DraftKings $9,300 / FanDuel $10,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1400
