Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Ross Chastain
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Las Vegas, put Ross Chastain near the top of your radar. Chastain didn’t win at Las Vegas in 2022, but he swept the top 3 and ranked #1 between the combined events in many statistical categories which you’ll read about below. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks over the combined events, Chastain had the best Total Speed Ranking over the combined events and in 4 of the 6 races he ranked in the top 4 in terms of speed. Also in 2022 on this sub-track type, Chastain had a series best 7.8 average finish, the best average running position (6.6), the best driver rating and averaged leading a series best 51.5 laps per race.
Las Vegas Track History – Ross Chastain was a standout performer at Las Vegas in 2022 and swept the top 3. Between the combined events, Chastain had the best driver rating, the best average finish (2.5), the best average running position (4.8) and averaged leading the most laps per race (75.5). Last fall, the #1 was stout and Chastain was the leader with 4 to go until Joey Logano who had a tire advantage reeled him in. In the race, Chastain finished 4th in Stage #2, finished 2nd overall, led 68 laps, had a 5.7 average running position and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Chastain ranked 4th, and in the final segment the #1 was the fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Chastain ran great and ranked among the best. In the race, Chastain started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the best driver rating, had a race best 3.8 average running position, led a race high 83 laps and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, he ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and then 4th for Speed Late In A Run. The #1 was maneuverable and could make moves at the top of the track, and at the bottom. In all seven of his Las Vegas races prior to that he finished 20th or worse, but personally I wouldn’t even bother looking into them any.
Kyle Busch
Las Vegas Bottom Line – Las Vegas is Kyle Busch’s home track and in recent races, Busch has arguably been the best. Last spring, Busch nearly raced his way to victory lane in a “Parts Car”, and in the fall he overcame a spin and losing a tire late to finish 3rd. Just imagine if he has an incident free race! In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks minus Kansas #2 and Texas, Kyle Busch had a 3.0 average finish! Fresh off a trip to victory lane in impressive fashion at Auto Club, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Las Vegas and over the last five races, Busch has finished between 3rd to 6th, has a series best 3.3 average finish and his driver rating ranks as the 3rd best. I’ll note, in spring Las Vegas races he’s been especially strong and over the last seven spring events he has a series best 5 top fives and his 6.0 average finish ranks as the 2nd best. Last fall, Busch had an eventful afternoon but rallied to finish 3rd. In the race, Busch spun into the grass while running in 6th on lap 76, lost a wheel around lap 230 while running in 5th under caution but despite all of those problems he rallied late to finish 3rd. In the race, Busch had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking, but take note in the final segment he ranked 3rd in terms of speed. In other speed stats he ranked 5th for speed late in a run and 7th for green flag speed. In spring 2022, Busch crashed in practice but nearly raced his way to victory lane in a backup car. In the race, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led the 2nd most laps (49) and was the leader before the final caution which brought out overtime. Then during that caution, Busch took four tires which got him leapfrogged on pit road which led to his 4th. In terms of speed stats, Busch ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and over the second half of the race in terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 2nd for speed in both the 3rd and 4th segments. In 2021, Busch had a pair of 3rd place finishes for the season.
Kyle Larson
Las Vegas Bottom Line – Kyle Larson will be tough to beat at Las Vegas. “Sin City” has been a stellar venue for Larson, and he’s been especially strong in spring races here. In spring Las Vegas races, Larson has finished 1st and 2nd in the last two, and in this particular event since 2017 he sports a series best 4.8 average finish and has the best driver rating. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Las Vegas in the fall his average finish was 6.0, which was a series best over that particular group of races.
Las Vegas Track History – Kyle Larson has thrived at Las Vegas. Larson’s a recent winner (spring 2021) and since 2017 minus last fall, Larson has a 5.4 average finish. In 5 of his 10 races over that stretch, Larson’s come home with a top 3 finish. Last fall, the #5 was fast but Larson finished an asterisk mark 35th. In the race, Larson started 14th, finished 5th in Stage #1 but then early in Stage #2 while battling for 5th he had his incident with Wallace which led to him getting torpedoed which destroyed the #5. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th for the afternoon. Last spring, Larson had a strong showing and finished runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and led 27 laps. I’ll note, Larson’s runner-up didn’t come easy. During the lap 30 competition caution while he was in 5th he pitted twice because of a vibration, and then in the last Stage while he was running around 5th, he got a speeding penalty (caution came out shortly after that which really saved him). With 4 to go, Larson battled back up to 9th, and then during the caution which brought out overtime, Larson used pit strategy which got him the lead off of pit road. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. In fall 2021, Larson had a great car, but he finished an asterisk mark 10th. In the race, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, led 95 laps, had a 6.9 average running position and then finished 10th when the checkered flag waved. In Stage #2, a caution came out that got him out of sync with the field fuel wise, and he simply never fully bounced back. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked 4th in both Speed Late In A Run and Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2021, Larson was dominant en route to victory lane. He won Stage #2, finished 1st overall, led 103 laps, had a 3.4 average running position and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
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