Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, get ready to roll the dice at Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. Las Vegas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track with moderate tire wear. To prepare for Las Vegas, make sure you study how drivers performed last year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks (High-Speed 1.5’s Total Speed Ranking Heat Chart), how they practiced, and then take into account how they performed last week at Auto Club.
On Saturday, practice was held for Las Vegas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying). Make sure you check out our Las Vegas Practice Notes, Las Vegas 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and BRAND NEW, Las Vegas Lap By Lap Speed Tracker.
Here’s the Las Vegas Pennzoil 400 Starting Lineup.
Las Vegas Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Ross Chastain
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 7th | 10 Lap Avg – 5th
Quick Scoop – At Las Vegas, Ross Chastain will be a driver to be reckoned with. Chastain was a standout performer at “Sin City” last year, he’s fresh off an impressive showing at Auto Club (Finished 3rd, led 91 laps, best Total Speed Ranking) and in 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks where there’s correlation, the #1 was always a factor. In 2022 on this sub-track type, Chastain had the best Total Speed Ranking, a series best 7.8 average finish, the best average running position (6.6), the best driver rating and he averaged leading a series best 51.5 laps per race. In practice, the #1 was strong.
Las Vegas Breakdown – Last year at Las Vegas, Ross Chastain was strong in both races. Between the combined events, Chastain had a series best 2.5 average finish, a series best 4.8 average running position, had the best driver rating and he averaged leading the most laps per race (75.5). Last fall, Chastain was the leader with 4 to go until Joey Logano who had a tire advantage reeled him in. In the race, Chastain finished 4th in Stage #2, finished 2nd overall, led 68 laps, had a 5.7 average running position and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Chastain ranked 4th, and in the final segment the #1 was the fastest car on the track. Last spring, Chastain was strong. In the race, Chastain started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the best driver rating, had a race best 3.8 average running position, led a race high 83 laps and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Chastain ranked 2nd.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +800 (Saturday Noon)+
Further Recommended Reading = Las Vegas Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Las Vegas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Las Vegas Scoring Projections
2) Kyle Larson
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 2nd | 10 Lap Avg – 2nd
Quick Scoop – At Las Vegas, I wouldn’t want to bet against Kyle Larson. Larson’s finished 1st and 2nd in the last two spring races, and over the last ten he’s finished in the top THREE, 50% of the time. In spring Las Vegas races since 2017, Larson’s been especially strong and has a series best 4.8 average finish. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Las Vegas in the fall, his average finish was 6.0. At Auto Club, Larson finished 29th but take note the #5 didn’t lack speed and in the 4th segment, it was the 3rd fastest car on the track. In practice, Larson ranked 2nd for 5 and 10 lap averages.
Las Vegas Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Las Vegas. Larson’s a recent winner (spring 2021) and since 2017 minus last fall, Larson has a 5.4 average finish. Last fall, Larson was likely one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 35th. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1 but then early in Stage #2 while battling Wallace for 5th, they had contact and we all know how that played out. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. Last spring, Larson had a strong showing and finished runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and led 27 laps. I’ll note, Larson’s runner-up didn’t come easy. During the lap 30 competition caution while he was in 5th, he pitted twice and then in the last Stage while he was running around 5th, he got a speeding penalty (caution came out shortly after that which really saved him). With 4 to go, Larson battled back up to 9th, and then during the caution which brought out overtime, Larson used pit strategy. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. In fall 2021, Larson might’ve just had the best car but he finished an asterisk mark 10th, thanks to out of sync failed pit strategy. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, led 95 laps, had a 6.9 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Larson was the class of the field. He won Stage #2, finished 1st overall, led 103 laps, had a 3.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +700
3) Joey Logano
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 4th | 10 Lap Avg – 7th
Quick Scoop – Joey Logano, last fall’s Las Vegas winner will be a force to be reckoned with from the pole. Logano’s won 3 of the last 8 Vegas races, and in spring races since 2014, he’s been especially good and has a 5.8 average finish. In the 2022 Playoffs at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks where there’s correlation, Logano had the best driver rating, the 2nd best average finish (6.7) and the 2nd best average running position (7.2). Last week at Auto Club, the #22 finished 10th after fading late, but take note, Logano had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking.
Las Vegas Breakdown – Joey Logano has been strong at Las Vegas. He’s won 3 of the last 8 races and since 2014, Logano’s finished in the top 14 every race and has a series best 6.5 average finish. Last fall, Logano passed Ross Chastain late for the lead and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Logano finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 3.9 average running position, led 32 laps, earned the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Logano finished 14th, had a 10.7 average running position, ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. With 4 laps to go until the scheduled distance, Logano was running in 12th. In 2021, Logano had Las Vegas results of 9th and 11th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +800
