Phoenix Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR is racing at Phoenix, where in November the series will crown the 2023 champion. This weekend, massive change is in the air and NASCAR is debuting a brand-new low downforce package. Here’s a YouTube video which does a good job describing the changes. Essentially, downforce is reduced by 30% which will put the race in the driver’s hands more.
On Friday, NASCAR held an extended 50-minute practice session for teams to setup their cars for the new rules package. Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes, Phoenix 5,10,15,20, 25 and 30 lap average speed cheat sheet, Phoenix Lap By Lap Speed Rankings and Phoenix Lap By Lap Speed Rankings Heat Chart.
Here’s Phoenix Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Full Field Phoenix Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 1st | 10 Lap Avg – 1st | 15 Lap Avg – 1st | 20 Lap Avg – 1st | 25 Lap Avg – 1st | 30 Lap Avg – 1st
Quick Scoop – Kyle Larson is an elite performer at Phoenix who should be high on your radar. He’s a recent winner (fall 2021) and since fall 2018 minus last spring, Larson has a 4.9 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 9 every race. In 2022 at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix #1, Larson had a 10.8 average finish and an 8.8 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over the combined events, Larson ranked 6th. In practice, nobody was better than Larson and he ranked #1 in terms of 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 lap averages. In a post-qualifying interview after winning the pole, Larson said his car handled good and had a lot of speed.
Phoenix Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been an ace at Phoenix and during his tenure in the #5 minus last spring where his engine blew up while running in 5th, Larson has a 5.7 average finish. Last fall, Larson was strong. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. Last spring, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson finished 7th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage his engine blew up while running in 5th. In fall 2021 en route to victory lane, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 107 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Larson started in the back, got two speeding penalties and then finished 7th. In his four Phoenix races prior to that, Larson had results of 4th, 4th, 6th and 3rd.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +400
2) Ryan Blaney
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 2nd | 10 Lap Avg – 2nd | 15 Lap Avg – 11th | 20 Lap Avg – 8th
Quick Scoop – Look for Ryan Blaney to be a factor at Phoenix. Phoenix has been a standout venue for the #12 team, and in 2022, I wouldn’t argue with anybody who said he was the strongest in the desert. Last year at shorter-flat tracks where there’s correlation, Blaney had the best average finish (7.5), the 2nd best average running position (7.0), averaged leading the 2nd most laps per race (65.5), had the 2nd best driver rating and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, the #12 showed good speed. On Sunday, look for Blaney to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Phoenix Breakdown – Ryan Blaney has never won at Phoenix, but he’s performed at a super-elite level and ranks as one of the best. At Phoenix, Blaney has five straight top tens and over that stretch, Blaney has a series best 4.5 average running position, the 2nd best average finish (5.2), he’s averaged leading the 2nd most laps per race (64.2) and his driver rating is the 2nd best. Last fall, Blaney was stout, and I wouldn’t disagree with anyone if they said he had the best car. In the race, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 109 laps, had a 2.2 average running position and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Blaney was tied with Logano for being the fastest. In spring 2022, Blaney won Stage #2, led a race high 143 laps, earned the best driver rating, had a 4.5 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. Blaney even got a speeding penalty while leading during the lap 25 competition caution, so that makes his afternoon a little more impressive. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Blaney ranked 2nd. In 2021, Blaney had results of 4th and 10th.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +900
Also check out: Phoenix Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Phoenix Projected Scores, FanDuel Phoenix Projected Scores
3) William Byron
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 15th | 10 Lap Avg – 5th | 15 Lap Avg – 2nd | 20 Lap Avg – 2nd | 25 Lap Avg – 2nd | 30 Lap Avg – 3rd
Quick Scoop – At Phoenix, don’t overlook William Byron. Byron has been a strong performer in the desert and “Performance Wise”, he’s been a top ten contender over the last six straight Phoenix races. Last year at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix #1 (afternoon went south late) and Gateway (Hendrick collectively missed the setup), Byron had a 7.9 average finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over the combined events, Byron ranked 7th. In practice, Byron looked sporty and had good speed after adjustments were made.
Phoenix Breakdown – William Byron has consistently performed at a high-level at Phoenix and over the last six races, Byron has the 9th best driver rating, a 10.0 average running position and an 11.2 average finish. Last fall, Byron had a strong showing. In the race, Byron finished 7th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had an 8.1 average running position and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked #1 for speed late in a run, but I’ll note pit strategy helped him in both speed analytics. In spring 2022, Byron won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 5.7 average running position and led 12 laps. The #24 team didn’t seem to keep up with adjustments though, and over each new segment he got slower. His Total Speed Ranking was the 6th best but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 4th, 9th and 12th. With 3 laps to go, Byron was running in 12th, so he lost quite a few positions in the closing laps en route to his 18th. In fall 2021, Byron was about 10th place good but finished a misleading 17th. In the three races prior to that, Byron had results of 8th, 9th and 10th.
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $9,500 / DK Odds To Win +800
