COTA Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Martin Truex Jr.
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. had a down year at road courses in 2022 but make no mistake, he’s one of the premiere performers on this track type. With the new rules package, I’m hoping he bounces back in a major way, but he did run well at COTA last spring despite basically not looking that great in the rest of the 2022 events. At road courses, Truex is a three-time winner and since 2018 minus 2022 as a whole, the Roval 2021, Daytona RC 2021, COTA 2021 (crashed) and the Charlotte Roval in 2018 (spun out while leading in the final turn), Truex has a 4.8 average finish. In 2022 on this track type, Truex only had 2 top fifteens and his Total Speed Ranking over the combined events ranked 17th.
COTA Track History – Martin Truex Jr. was solid last year at COTA, and I would completely disregard his 2021 afternoon. Last year, Truex finished 7th, was tied for having the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 13.1 average running position. It was a very respectable afternoon for the #19 team. In 2021, Truex likely had a great car, but he crashed in the blinding rain on lap 25 which led to his 35th.

Denny Hamlin
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, I would temper your expectations with Denny Hamlin, at least heading into the weekend. Hamlin is a very capable performer on this track type, but 2022 was a down year for him at road courses with Hamlin failing to finish in the top ten once, and minus Sonoma he went 5 for 5 at finishing between 13th to 20th. In terms of 2022 Track Type Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 23rd.
COTA Track History – Denny Hamlin is 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens at COTA with his average finish being 16th. Last year, Hamlin finished 18th but I think he performed better than his result. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #2 (pit strategy), had a 12.9 average running position and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the segments his speeds were 14th, 7th, 12th and then 30th. I’ll note, late in the race on lap 59 Hamlin spun, but on that very lap he was running in 22nd. “Performance Wise”, I would say Hamlin was realistically about mid-teens good. In 2021, I don’t think we seen the best Denny Hamlin had to offer in the rain. I think Hamlin approached the afternoon very conservatively. In the race, Hamlin finished 14th, had a 14.9 average running position and was the 15th fastest driver late in a run.

Brad Keselowski
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Brad Keselowski has developed a bad rap at road courses in recent years, but last year he wasn’t as bad as you’re likely thinking. In 2022 on this track type minus Road America, Keselowski was 5 for 5 at finishing between 10th to 20th and had a 15.4 average finish. One attribute you have to like about Keselowski heading into the weekend is the #6 teams bump up in performance. In 2023, Keselowski has the 3rd best average running position and the 4th best driver rating. This weekend, I think he’s a mid-teens driver who has upside.
COTA Track History – At COTA, Brad Keselowski has a pair of teen finishes on his resume with his average finish being 16.5. Last year, Keselowski finished 14th but take note of his 27.6 average running position and 31st best Total Speed Ranking. With 6 laps to go until the scheduled distance and the final caution, Keselowski was running in 23rd. In 2021, Keselowski finished 19th, had a 21.7 average running position and was the 19th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note, Keselowski was running in 9th on lap 36, but then on that very lap he spun and lost all of his track position which dropped him back in the running order.

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