COTA Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ty Gibbs
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Ty Gibbs has been great at road courses on the Xfinity level, but against Cup level competition, I think he’ll be his typical high-teens to low-twenties self. Last year at road courses on the Cup level, Gibbs had a 21.6 average finish. In the results department, Gibbs had results of 17th (Indy), 26th (Watkins Glen) and 22nd (Charlotte Roval).
COTA Track History – Last year in the Xfinity series at COTA, Ty Gibbs started on the pole, led 1 lap, finished 10th in Stage #1 and then finished 15th when the checkered flag waved.

Aric Almirola
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, I think Aric Almirola has teens upside, but that’s tops! Over the last 14 races on this track type, Almirola has 8 results between 14th to 19th but in the other six he’s finished 24th or worse. Last year on this track type, Almirola had three finishes in the teens but in the other three he finished 28th or worse. In terms of Total Speed Rankings last year, Almirola ranked 31st. This weekend, I think he’s a coin flip between teens finish and buzz kill result, but I don’t see a lot of upside.
COTA Track History – At COTA, Aric Almirola has a 22.5 average finish over the combined races. Last year, the #10 team didn’t have an afternoon to get excited about. In the race, Almirola finished 19th, had a 22.6 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 27th best. In 2021, Almirola finished a clunker 26th. In the race, Almirola had a 22.7 average running position, and I would say that accurately reflects his afternoon. On lap 52, which was one lap before the race ending caution came out, Almirola was in 21st.

Bubba Wallace
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Picking Bubba Wallace at road courses isn’t for the faint of heart, so keep your expectations low. If by chance you do pick him, just make sure you root for mass chaos at the end. At COTA, Wallace is 2 for 2 at finishing 38th or worse, and in 2022 at road courses, Wallace finished 35th or worse in 4 of the 6 races. In the two races he finished outside of that range, mass chaos ensued right at the end and Wallace escaped with a pair of top 7 finishes. In 2022 in terms of Total Speed Rankings at road courses, Wallace ranked 27th.
COTA Track History – COTA has been disastrous for Bubba Wallace. He’s 2 for 2 at DNF’ing and his average finish is a dismal 38.5. Last year, Wallace’s afternoon was cut short and he finished 38th due to “suspension issues.” On lap 44 at the time of his demise when he lost a tire and then stopped on the track, Wallace was running in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Wallace ranked 19th which I view as reflective of his performance. In 2021, Wallace had a short race and finished 39th after crashing on lap 19 in the rain. On lap 18, one lap before his demise he was running in 21st.

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