COTA Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, look for Kyle Busch to be tough to beat. Busch now pilots the #8, and that ride was arguably the class of the field in 2022 at road courses with Reddick racing his way to victory lane twice and having the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. Remember how well Reddick’s Auto Club 2022 performance translated over for Busch this year? A trip to victory lane! Last year, Busch had a major down year at road courses, but so did JGR as a whole. Since 2015 at road courses minus 2022 (down year) and all the “Roval Races”, Busch has a 5.1 average finish.
COTA Track History – Kyle Busch has been strong at COTA, so make sure he’s high on your radar. Last year, Busch finished 28th, but get out an asterisk mark for that result. On the last lap, Busch was running in 5th and in the telecast, there was a quick mention that he spun which ruined his afternoon. In the race, Busch finished 2nd in Stage #2, had an 11.3 average running position and over the closing two segments of the race he had speed rankings of 7th and 6th. In 2021, Busch had a great car that ranked among the best. The #18 was viewed as a barometer for the field, and “Performance Wise” I would say he was a factor to win/top five contender. In the race, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position, led 12 laps and ranked as the 6th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note, Busch had to pit for fuel in the closing laps and was in 3rd on lap 50, which was three laps before the race ending caution. When the checkered flag waved he finished 10th.

Kyle Larson
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, look for Kyle Larson to be a contender. Larson has developed a “Hero or zero” factor on this track type but make no mistake, he’s one of the best. In the #5 at road courses, Larson has 4 wins and 7 results in the top 3, but then in the other six races he’s finished 15th or worse. Last year on this track type, Larson won at Watkins Glen and finished 3rd at Road America, but then in the other four races he finished 15th or worse. For the season, Larson’s track type Total Speed Ranking was the 10th best. At Phoenix where the new low-down force package made its debut, Larson was impressive and dominated much of the race.
COTA Track History – At COTA, Kyle Larson has been solid. Larson was great in 2021 and showed potential in 2022, but that race was anything but incident free for him. Last year, Larson started 13th, finished 5th in Stage #1 but then early in Stage #2, his afternoon started to go south. On lap 18 when he was back in the 20’s because of pit strategy he spun. Then near the end on the lap 65 restart, Larson was involved in a crash which doomed him to a 29th. At that time, Larson was running around 20th. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 6th for speed late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 14th best. In 2021, Larson had a great car and if the race went the scheduled distance, he was likely poised to be the winner. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 4 laps, had a 7.2 average running position and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run.

Ross Chastain
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Ross Chastain, last spring’s winner at COTA will be tough to beat. Chastain is a strong road course racer, and there’s no question about his COTA prowess. Chastain has COTA figured out, under both dry and wet conditions. In 2022 at road courses, Chastain started the season red hot with a 4th place average finish over the first three races, then over the next three, he finished 21st or worse. In terms of Road Course 2022 Track Type Total Speed Rankings minus the Charlotte Roval, Chastain ranked 3rd for the season.
COTA Track History – At COTA, nobody has been better than Ross Chastain. Chastain raced his way to victory lane last spring in the dry conditions and was stout in the 2021 tsunami. Between the combined events, Chastain has a 2.5 average finish, a 6.8 average running position and his driver rating is the best by a wide margin. Last year, Chastain had a hot rod and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Chastain started 16th, had a 3.8 average running position, led 31 laps and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and #1 for Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Chastain drove aggressively, and I would argue nobody ran harder than him in the rain. In the race, Chastain finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 4th overall, led 4 laps, had a 9.8 average running position and ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions >The Low Tier