COTA Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR is returning to COTA. They say everything is bigger in Texas, and COTA being a 20-turn, 3.426-mile monster ranks as the biggest track on the circuit. COTA is a beast, and it’s also a fairly short race, going by lap count.
The race format in terms of Stages is 15/30/68. That said, there will be NO STAGE break cautions on Sunday, which in “theory”, should make this more of a straightforward race in terms of fast cars finishing up front. Before, drivers would tank their afternoon and the field would get flipped at Stages because of pit strategy. This year, points will just get awarded at the given lap counts.
Multiple pit strategies will ensue on Sunday, and on lap-17 we’ll likely know if drivers are doing a 2 or 3 pit stop strategy. If you’re live betting, that will definitely be something to watch.
On Friday, NASCAR held an extended 1-hour practice session for COTA. Here’s a look at COTA Practice Notes, COTA Lap-By-Lap Average Speed Rankings Heat Chart and COTA 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the COTA qualifying results/ starting lineup for Sunday’s Echopark Automotive Grand Prix.
COTA Full Field Rankings Post Qualifying Rankings
1) Tyler Reddick
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 1st
Quick Scoop – Tyler Reddick is the new road course king and at COTA, the #45 will be the car to beat. Reddick was strong here last spring, and in 2022 on this track type, Reddick won twice, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Sonoma, Reddick had a 4.4 average finish and had a result in the top 8 every race. In practice, Reddick showed up with speed. He posted the fastest overall lap, had the best 5-lap average and the best 10-lap average (only two drivers).
COTA Breakdown – Tyler Reddick has been one of the best at COTA. Between the combined events, Reddick has the 4th best average finish (7.0) and the 4th best average running position (9.6). Last year, Reddick was one of the best and consistently ran near the front. In the race, Reddick started 4th, had a 4.6 average running position, led 2 laps and then finished 5th. Take note, those 2 laps led were laps 66 and 67 of the 69-lap race. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021 in the rain, Reddick finished 9th.
DraftKings $9,900 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +350 (Saturday afternoon following qualifying)
2) Ross Chastain
Start 12th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 2nd
Quick Scoop – Ross Chastain, the defending COTA champ will be a driver to be reckoned with. Ross is an elite road course racer, and this weekend, it appears the #1 team unloaded a hot rod. In practice, Chastain had the 2nd best lap-by-lap average speed ranking and ranked 2nd for 5-lap averages. In 2022 at road courses, Chastain started the season with a 4th place average finish over the first three races, but then over the next three trouble creeped up and he finished 21st or worse. In terms of Road Course 2022 Track Type Total Speed Rankings minus the Charlotte Roval, Chastain ranked 3rd. On Sunday, Chastain is starting 12th. Last year he won from 16th.
COTA Breakdown – At COTA, nobody has been better than Ross Chastain and over the combined races, Chastain has a 2.5 average finish, the best driver rating by a wide margin and a 6.8 average running position. Last year, Chastain started 16th, had a 3.8 average running position, led 31 laps and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and #1 for Speed Late In A Run. In 2021 in the rain, Chastain finished 4th.
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +1200
Further Recommended Reading: COTA Finish Projections, DraftKings COTA Scoring Projections, FanDuel COTA Scoring Projections
3) Kyle Busch
Start 9th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 3rd
Quick Scoop – Look for Kyle Busch to be tough to beat at COTA. Busch is an elite road course racer, and the #8 was an absolute rocket at road courses in 2022, with Reddick racing his way to victory lane twice and having the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. When it comes to road course racing prowess, Busch is one of the best. He’s a 4-time winner and since 2015 minus 2022 (down year) and all the races held at “Rovals”, Busch has a 5.1 average finish. In practice, Busch had great speed. Busch had the 3rd best 5-lap average and his lap-by-lap average speed ranking ranked as the 4th best.
COTA Breakdown – Kyle Busch has been strong at COTA and “Performance Wise”, he’s 2 for 2 at being a top five contender but to show for it he has a pair of asterisk mark results. Last year, Busch finished 28th but get out an asterisk mark for that finish. On the last lap while running in 5th, Busch was spun which led to his misleading result. In the race, Busch finished 2nd in Stage #2 and over the closing two segments of the race he had speed rankings of 7th and 6th. In 2021, Busch was one of the best. In the race, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position, led 12 laps and ranked as the 6th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note, Busch had to pit for fuel in the closing laps and was in 3rd on lap 50, which was three laps before the race ending caution. When the checkered flag waved, Busch finished 10th.
DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +1200
