Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Erik Jones
Richmond Fantasy Spin – At Richmond, I don’t see a lot of upside in terms of picking Erik Jones, and a result around 20th is likely in the cards. Jones hasn’t run well here in recent races, and finishing about 20th has become the norm for him here, on a good day! At Phoenix a few weeks back, Jones finished 21st, had a 17.9 average running position and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Erik Jones has had some great races in the past, but recently, things have been ugly and over the last six races he’s finished 19th or worse. In 4 of those 6 races, Jones finished between 19th to 23rd. Last summer, Jones finished a DNF 35th after crashing shortly after the restart in the final Stage. On lap 218 just prior to his demise, Jones was running in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 23rd. Last spring, Jones had a forgettable afternoon. In the race, Jones finished 23rd, had a 17.4 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three Richmond races prior to that, Jones had results of 21st, 19th and 22nd.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished in the teens in 5 of the last 8 Richmond races but I think he likely has about a 20th place finish in the cards this weekend. Shorter-flat track racing has been a weakness for him and in 2022 on this track type, Stenhouse went 6 for 6 at finishing 22nd or worse and had a 27.3 average finish. At Phoenix a few weeks back, Stenhouse finished 19th, had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and a 25.6 average running position. Also take note, before late cautions broke out in that race he was running in 24th.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. always has “Out of sync” pit strategy but I can’t exactly say it’s worked out for him. Currently at “The Action Track”, Stenhouse has three straight results in the 20’s and over that stretch he has a 24.3 average finish. Last summer, Stenhouse used unique pit strategy but when the checkered flag waved he finished 22nd, had a 20.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 18th best. Last spring, Stenhouse was really bad, and it was just an uncompetitive showing. In the race he finished 28th, had a 26.3 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was a lowly 28th. In fall 2021, Stenhouse finished 23rd. In the five races prior to that, Stenhouse finished in the teens between 13th to 18th.
Michael McDowell
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Michael McDowell is no Superman, but shorter-flat tracks have been like kryptonite to him. I’ll note, McDowell finished 13th at Phoenix a few weeks ago with the new low-down force package (15.9 avg. running position, 15th best Total Speed Ranking) so there’s hope, but that certainly isn’t the norm from him on this track type. In 2022 at these venues, McDowell had a 26.2 average finish over the combined events. At Richmond, I would look for McDowell to finish in the 20’s.
Richmond Track History – Richmond hasn’t been a bright spot for Michael McDowell and over the last five races, McDowell has finished between 25th to 30th, has a 27.8 average finish and he’s finished 3 or more laps down per race. Last summer, McDowell was extremely uncompetitive. In the race, McDowell finished 29th, had a 30th place average running position and had the 33rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, McDowell didn’t run well, and his afternoon went south early. On lap 40 it was mentioned that McDowell made an unexpected green flag pit stop for tires, and at that time he was already way back in the high twenties. When the checkered flag waved, McDowell finished 30th. In 2021, McDowell had clunker results of 27th and 28th.
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