On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Richmond for the Toyota Owners 400! Richmond is a .75-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” Phoenix is a fellow shorter-flat track that was visited earlier this year and with pre-race on track activity canceled, make sure you go back and study what happened there when the new low-down force package made its debut.

One notable differentiator between Richmond and Phoenix is that tire wear is pretty extreme here in comparison.

On Saturday, practice and qualifying were both rained out. As a result, the Richmond Starting Lineup was set by the metric.

Richmond Full Field Rankings

1) Kevin Harvick
Start 10th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Richmond and on Sunday, look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. Harvick’s the most recent winner at Richmond, and he was the class of the field at Phoenix, so there’s no question he’s poised to be a factor. Last year at Richmond, nobody was better than Harvick and between the combined events, Harvick had the best average finish (1.5) and the best driver rating. At Phoenix where the new low downforce rules package made its debut, Harvick was poised to win until the late caution came out. Additionally in the desert, Harvick had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking (fastest in segment #4), was the fastest driver late in a run and led 36 laps. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and minus Gateway where he crashed, Harvick’s average finish was 3.8.
Richmond Breakdown – Kevin Harvick has been a super-elite performer at Richmond. At “The Action Track”, Harvick’s a four-time winner and in 13 of the last 16 races, he’s finished in the top 8. Since 2018 minus spring 2021 where he crashed late while running in 6th, Harvick has a 4.6 average finish. In 2022 at “The Action Track”, Harvick swept the top 2. Last summer, Harvick was the class of the field when it was “Closing Time” and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Harvick finished 4th in Stage #2, led 55 laps, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Harvick had a great car and finished runner-up. In the race, the #4 was fast and in terms of speed stats, Harvick had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for speed late in a run. Over the last 100 laps, the #4 was the fastest car on the track. In 2021, Harvick finished 8th in the fall and then crashed late while running in 6th in the spring. In the five Richmond races prior to that, Harvick had results of 7th, 7th, 4th, 2nd and 5th.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +550 (Saturday Morning)

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2) William Byron
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Quick Scoop – Phoenix winner, William Byron should be on your short list of favorites at Richmond. The #24 is fast everywhere in every speed analytic (Tweet), and Richmond where he finished runner-up last spring won’t be an exception. At Phoenix where the new rules package made its debut, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking, a 2.5 average running position, led 64 laps and was poised to finish in 4th until a late caution came out.
Richmond Breakdown – William Byron has been a solid performer at Richmond, and I’ll note historically, Byron’s been at his best in spring races where his average finish his 8.75 and he’s had a result in the top 13 every race. Last summer, Byron was respectable. In the race, Byron finished 11th, had a 12th place average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Byron looked great and nearly raced his way to victory lane only being beat by drivers with superior tire strategy at the end. In the race, Byron finished 3rd, led 122 laps, had a 6.8 average running position and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Byron finished a lack luster 19th in the fall but in the spring he finished 7th.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +750

Recommended Further Reading: Richmond Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Richmond Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Richmond Playability Value Chart

3) Christopher Bell
Start 21st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Quick Scoop – Christopher Bell will be a factor at Richmond. Bell has a knack for this track, and there’s no question he’s one of the premiere performers at shorter-flat tracks. At Richmond, Bell has won here in 3 of his 4 Xfinity starts, and over his last four Cup races, Bell has a 3.8 average finish and is 4 for 4 at finishing between 2nd to 6th. At shorter-flat tracks since 2021 minus Phoenix spring 2022, Bell has a 5.5 average finish and is 11 for 11 at finishing in the top ten. At Phoenix where the new rules package debuted, Bell finished 6th, had a 4.8 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. If the late caution didn’t come out, Bell was poised to likely finish in 3rd.
Richmond Breakdown – Christopher Bell has been elite at Richmond and over the last four races, Bell has a 3.8 average finish and is 4 for 4 at finishing between 2nd to 6th. Last summer, Bell’s race was anything but incident free (pit penalty under green, spun) but when it was “Closing Time”, Bell raced his way up to a 2nd place finish. Over the last 100 laps, the #20 was the fastest car on the track. Last spring, Bell had a great performance. In the race, Bell finished 7th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 63 laps, had a 5.5 average running position, and then finished 6th. In 2021, Bell had results of 3rd and 4th.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +750