Bristol Dirt Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Heat Race Predictions

On Sunday night under the lights, get ready for some dirt action at “The Last Great Coliseum!” This is year #3 at “Bristol Dirt”, and I expect the intensity to be ramped up and mass chaos to ensue. Unlike the last two previous editions on the dirt, weather won’t be an issue on race day with zero percent chance of rain from 10AM to 10PM.

On Saturday, NASCAR held Heat Races which set the starting lineup. Here’s a look at the Heat Races. I would view the Heat Races as “mini simulation” races to give us a quick look for who might be good. With no practice sessions due to rain, it should give some insight.

Here’s the Bristol Dirt Starting Lineup.

Bristol Dirt Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Quick Scoop – On Easter night at Bristol Dirt, I think the road to victory lane goes thru Kyle Larson. Larson is fresh off a trip to victory lane and in year #3 on the surface, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s the premiere dirt track racer in NASCAR, and “Performance Wise”, he’s arguably been the best from the two previous races. Larson was great last year in a car he didn’t like, and in 2021, I think he probably had the field covered but crashed. In his Heat Race, Larson started in 6th but led all 15 laps en route to victory lane! On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Bristol Dirt Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been stout at Bristol Dirt. In 2022, Larson had a strong showing and I’ll note he didn’t even like his car. In the race, Larson started 5th, won Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, had a 6.6 average running position, earned the best driver rating, led 27 laps and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In 2021, I think Larson had the best car and in our PROS Rankings he ranked #1. In the race, Larson started in the rear of the field, but had no trouble racing his way up thru the running order. On lap 54 while he was running the high-line and all the way up to 5th, Christopher Bell spun and then Larson nailed him. Larson had more problems later, but after that incident his competitive race was over and he went on to finish a clunker 29th.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +450

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2) Christopher Bell
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Christopher Bell has been a dirt ace and on Easter night, he’ll be tough to beat. Bell has been one of the best in the dirt, and then when you add in the weekly form of the #20 team, there’s no question he’s primed to have a strong showing. In 2023 minus the two races he’s crashed, Bell is 5 for 5 at finishing between 3rd to 6th. Bell comes from a dirt track racing background so he’ll be able to adapt as the track changes throughout the evening which will be a big advantage. In his Heat Race, Bell started in 8th and drove up to a 3rd place finish. On Sunday night, look for Bell to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Dirt Breakdown – Christopher Bell has run well at Bristol Dirt and is 2 for 2 at being a top five contender. Last year, Bell was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.1 average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and then finished 7th. I’ll note, Bell wasn’t at his best at the end. In 2021, Bell looked great but crashed and finished 34th. In the race, Bell started in 15th but had no trouble driving to the front. Bell raced all the way up to 2nd, but then on lap 54 he spun and was then nailed by Kyle Larson which marked the end of his race.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +650

Further Recommended Reading: Bristol Dirt Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Bristol Dirt Projections, FanDuel Bristol Dirt Projections

3) Tyler Reddick
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Tyler Reddick is one of the premiere performers on the dirt and on Sunday, he’ll be tough to beat. Reddick nearly raced his way to victory lane last year and after how that conclusion played out, he’ll be racing for redemption. When it comes to dirt track prowess, Reddick is one of the best. The track will be going through dynamic changes throughout the race, and Reddick knows how to find speed. At Bristol Dirt, look for Reddick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Bristol Dirt Breakdown – Tyler Reddick ranks among the premiere performers at Bristol Dirt. Between the combined races, Reddick ranks 2nd for average finish (4.5), 2nd for driver rating and 2nd for average running position (8.8). Last year, Reddick had a hot rod and nearly raced his way to victory lane but Chase Briscoe’s “Failed Hail Mary” that was never going to work spun him out which led to his 2nd. In the race, Reddick led the most laps (99), had a 5.4 average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Green Flag Speed. In terms of “Performance”, I would say Reddick was the 2nd best for the evening. In 2021, Reddick started 27th, but that wasn’t a problem. Reddick finished around 12th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 12.2 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed, Reddick was the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 11th best.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +450