Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished between 15th to 23rd in 6 of the last 7 races. On Sunday, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to finish around that range again, and of that range I would lean towards the high-teens.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville over the last six races, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has a 20.6 average finish and a 21.6 average running position. Last fall, Stenhouse was a low 20’s performer. In the race he finished 22nd, had a 24.9 average running position and had the 29th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Stenhouse had his worst recent Martinsville performance and finished 27th. Additionally, Stenhouse had a 27.1 average running position and the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2021, Stenhouse finished 19th, had a 16.4 average running position and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Stenhouse was better than his result because his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 460 while he was running around 12th, he spun. In spring 2021, Stenhouse was a mid to high-teens driver. In the race he finished 15th, had an 18.7 average running position and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the 4th segment when the money was on the line, Stenhouse ranked as the 15th Fastest. In 2020, Stenhouse had results of 20th and 21st.

Erik Jones
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, Erik Jones is capable of running well here but his track record is spotty. Based on the way the #43 is performing this year, I would lean towards him being a high-teens driver who has marginal upside.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville, Erik Jones has results all across the board, but recently, he’s been more solid than not. In 3 of the last 5 Martinsville races, he’s finished between 8th to 13th. In 2022, Jones had a pair of teen finishes. Last fall, Jones didn’t run well and finished two laps down in 18th. Additionally, Jones had a 23.4 average running position and the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Jones came home 13th. His average running position was 21.1 and his Total Speed Ranking was 23rd, but he legitimately ran well closing out the final 100 laps. In fall 2021, Jones finished 8th, had a 17.7 average running position, had the 20th best Green Flag Speed and the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. Jones only really closed out the race strong, other than that he wasn’t really all that great. In spring 2021, Jones wasn’t going to have a good afternoon, but he wasn’t 30th place bad. In the race, Jones was running in 17th on lap 354, but then shortly after that on lap 371 he spun which brought out the caution. That caution was shortly followed by him getting collected in the “Big One” which led to his 30th place result. In fall 2020 in the #20, Jones finished 12th.

AJ Allmendinger
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Don’t overlook AJ Allmendinger at Martinsville. Outside of road courses, I would argue Martinsville is his best Cup track. Last year, Allmendinger was a disappointment in both races and had a 23.5 average finish between the combined events, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounces back. That said, I think it’s best just to have reasonable teens expectations for him heading into the weekend.
Martinsville Track History – AJ Allmendinger has been a strong performer at “The Paper Clip” and in 6 of his last 9 Cup races he’s finished in the top 14. When you go even further back, Allmendinger has a pair of runner-up’s and in 12 of his last 17 races (70.5%) he’s finished in the top 14. Last fall, Allmendinger was a mid 20’s performer. In the race, Allmendinger finished 23rd, had a 25.3 average running position and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, it’s hard to read into Allmendinger’s evening since right at the start he had to serve a pass thru penalty which promptly dropped him off the lead lap. When the checkered flag waved he finished 24th and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. Back in 2018 when he next most recently raced here, Allmendinger had results of 8th and 14th.

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