Martinsville Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Martinsville! Martinsville is the oldest, shortest and slowest track on the circuit, but the action can be second to none. NASCAR is a contact sport, and I think there will be a ton of action over all four hundred miles. Martinsville is a .5-mile oval which I consider to be a unique track.

On Saturday, practice was held for Martinsville. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Martinsville Practice Notes, Martinsville Practice Speeds, Martinsville Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings Heat Chart and Martinsville 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Martinsville Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) William Byron
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 3rd | 10 Lap Avg – 2nd | 15 Lap Avg – 1st | 20 Lap Avg – 1st | 25 Lap Avg – 1st | 30 Lap Avg – 1st
Martinsville Scoop – William Byron, the defending spring winner at Martinsville will be tough to beat at “The Paper Clip.” The #24 is fast every time it sees the track, and that’s no different this weekend. In practice, Byron was in Group #2 when the track was slower, but he still ranked #1 for 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. In terms of Martinsville prowess, Byron is one of the best in the business. Byron’s the defending spring winner and over the last four races, Byron has the best average finish (4.25), the 2nd best driver rating and the 3rd best average running position (7.5). This year with the new low-downforce package at ovals, Byron raced his way to victory lane at Phoenix, has the 2nd best driver rating and the 2nd best average running position (3.0) and had the best Total Speed Ranking in both races. On Sunday, look for Byron to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Martinsville Breakdown – William Byron has been an elite performer at Martinsville and as you read above, over the last four races Byron has the best average finish (4.25), the 2nd best driver rating and the 3rd best average running position. When you go even further back, then in 6 of the last 7 Martinsville races, he’s finished in the top 8. Last fall, Byron finished 7th, but I’ll note it just wasn’t that great of a race for him. Byron was running in 11th before the late caution came out, had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking and a 16.2 average running position. Last spring, Byron was stellar en route to victory lane. In the final Stage he hit the afterburners and was basically unchallenged, fielding the fastest car on the track in segments #3 and #4. In the race, Byron started 5th, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 212 laps, had a 1.7 average running position and then of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking and the best Green Flag Speed. In 2021, Byron swept the top five with results of 4th and 5th.
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2) Denny Hamlin
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 21st | 10 Lap Avg – 20th | 15 Lap Avg – 16th | 20 Lap Avg – 15th
Martinsville Scoop – Denny Hamlin, is a super-elite performer at Martinsville and on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the road to victory lane goes thru him. My long running Hamlin mantra is, “If it’s short or flat, pick Hamlin.” At his home track, Hamlin’s a 5-time winner who’s finished in the top five, 50% of the time! Hamlin’s also been quite a dominator here recently having led +103 laps in 3 of the last 4 races. Following practice, Hamlin seemed very optimistic about his car in an interview. At Richmond, the most recent race visited with the low-down force rules package, Hamlin led 71 laps and had one of the best cars (finished an asterisk mark 20th). On Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Martinsville Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Martinsville and in recent races he’s been one of the best. Last fall, Hamlin had a rocket, but pit stops were his undoing and led to his 5th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 203 laps, had a 3.9 average running position, had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Until pit stops dropped him back in the final Stage, Hamlin looked to be the driver to beat. Last spring under the lights, Hamlin was junk and finished 28th. Just accept he was really bad and don’t hit the panic button about that. In fall 2021, Hamlin started in the rear of the field and nearly raced his way to victory lane until he got spun out at the end while leading which led to his 24th. Also in the race, Hamlin led 103 laps and finished 5th in Stage #2. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking but take note over the last three segments he had speed rankings of 5th, 3rd and 1st. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great car, but Truex outraced him at the end. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had the best driver rating, the best Total Speed Ranking, led 276 laps and then finished 3rd.
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Further Recommended Reading: Martinsville Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Martinsville Scoring Projections, FanDuel Martinsville Scoring Projections

3) Kyle Larson
Start 19th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 17th | 10 Lap Avg – 15th | 15 Lap Avg – 14th | 20 Lap Avg – 8th | 25 Lap Avg – 6th | 30 Lap Avg – 6th 
Martinsville Scoop – At Martinsville, look for Kyle Larson to perform at a high-level and potentially be a factor. Martinsville was once hailed as his worst track, but Larson finished runner-up last fall so that case is out the window. Overall, in the #5 at “The Paper Clip” minus last spring where he got a speeding penalty, Larson has a 7.0 average finish. This year in low-down force rules package races, Larson won at Richmond, has a 2.5 average finish, a 2.7 average running position and his driver rating is the best by a wide margin. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender.
Martinsville Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been a force at Martinsville in the #5. Last fall, Larson was stout. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.5 average running position, led 68 laps and then finished 2nd. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and the 4th best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2022, Larson was top ten good but finished an asterisk mark 19th. During an extended green flag pit cycle while running in 9th (prior to the cycle starting), Larson was caught speeding on pit road. For the evening his Total Speed Ranking was the 8th best. In 2021, Larson was a top five contender in both races. In fall 2021, Larson had a stellar showing but finished an asterisk mark 14th after getting two speeding penalties. In the race, Larson led 77 laps and then finished 2nd in Stage #1. Then during the Stage #1 caution he was caught speeding on pit road the first time. On lap 370, Larson was back up to 5th, but then on lap 378 he was caught speeding again. In spring 2021, Larson finished 5th and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking.
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