Talladega Confidence Rankings / Post Qualifying Predictions
On Sunday, buckle up and get out your good luck charm, because NASCAR will be racing at Talladega superspeedway! This is NASCAR’s biggest, wildest and most chaotic track on the circuit. Talladega can be outright brutal because drivers can get wrecked while leading just as easily as they can be running near the back. 5 of the last 6 Talladega races have had a last lap pass for the win.
All of that said, educated decisions can be made and strategies do exist (AKA… build DFS lineups heavy on place differential) to help you navigate this treacherous track.
No practices were held for Talladega, but they did qualify. Here’s the Talladega Starting Lineup.
Talladega Full Field Rankings
1) Ryan Blaney
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Ryan Blaney is one of the premiere superspeedway racers in NASCAR and at Talladega, there’s no doubt the #12 will be tough to beat. Blaney’s proven he can get the job done on this track type, and there’s no denying he’s one of the best in the business at this discipline of racing. Over the last 14 races at big superspeedways, Blaney has 3 wins, 6 top fives, 9 top tens and a series best 9.3 average finish. In the Next Gen specifically on this track type, Blaney has a series best 8.0 average finish, and that includes an 8th in this year’s Daytona 500.
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Ryan Blaney is always a factor at Talladega. He nearly raced his way to victory lane last fall, and over the last seven races, Blaney has 2-wins, the best driver rating and a series best 9.1 average finish. Last fall, Blaney won Stage #1, led 31 laps, was the leader on the final straightaway but was then passed by Chase Elliott coming to the finish line which led to his runner-up. Last spring, Blaney led 23 laps, had a 12.1 average running position and then finished 11th. I’ll note, the last Stage went green without a caution and prior to the final pit cycle starting, Blaney was running in 2nd. It just kind of shuffled him back. In fall 2021, Blaney finished 15th in that rain shortened race but I’ll note he was better than his result. In the race, Blaney finished 6th in Stage #1 and had a 9.8 average running position. Blaney was just back in mid-pack when the race reached its early conclusion. In spring 2021, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 11 laps and then finished 9th. With 5 laps to go until the scheduled distance, he was running in 2nd.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading – Talladega Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Talladega Scoring Projections, FanDuel Talladega Scoring Projections
2) Joey Logano
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Joey Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega and on Sunday, I think he’s primed to be a factor. In 2023 at superspeedways, nobody has been better than Logano. This year, Logano won his Duel 150, finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 and then raced his way to victory lane at Atlanta. Logano has been down on his luck prior to 2023 on this track type, but I think it’s clear the man is getting back his mojo. In terms of outright talent at superspeedways, I’ve long viewed Logano as being the perfect combination of being smart and aggressive. On Sunday if Logano can avoid trouble, look for him to be tough to beat.
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano has been elite at Talladega, but he’s been down on his luck in many of the recent races having finished 17th or worse in 5 of the last 6. When it comes to “Performance”, Logano has not lacked, except for last fall where he didn’t try hard. Last fall, Logano finished 5th in Stage #1 but then ended up finishing a low effort 27th. I’m largely chalking that result up to him choosing not to race hard. Last spring, Logano showed speed but crashed on lap 90 while running in 6th which led to his 32nd. In 2021 #2, Logano had his most recent incident free race and finished 3rd. In 2021 #1, Logano was wrecked on the last lap of Stage #1 while running in 3rd. In fall 2020, Logano finished 26th but I’ll note I think he subjectively had the best car. In the race, Logano earned the best driver rating, led a race high 45 laps, was the leader with 2 to go (scheduled distance), but then later that lap he crashed which led to his poor finish.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
3) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Quick Scoop – Denny Hamlin is a pied piper of superspeedway racing and on Sunday, I have no doubt he’ll be a factor. At Talladega, Hamlin is a two-time winner and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top 7. Over those combined events minus spring 2021 where he led 43 laps and I think subjectively had the best car but ruined his own afternoon (32nd), Hamlin has a 6.3 average finish. On Sunday, Hamlin will start on the pole. Back in 2020 when he previously started on the pole here, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane.
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin has performed at an elite level at Talladega and in recent races, he’s been one of the best. Last fall, Hamlin led 20 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and then finished 5th overall. Last spring, Hamlin was the leader with 20 to go (led 9 laps) but then with 4 laps to go while running in 8th, Hamlin had some sort of fuel situation and sputtered briefly which led to his 18th. In the fall 2021 rain shortened race, Hamlin finished 7th. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great car that I think was subjectively the best despite his asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Hamlin led a race high 43 laps (all before lap 92 where he had problems), finished 4th in Stage #1 and was the leader shortly before “Manufacturer pit stops” in Stage #2 where his downfall began. Around lap 92 when he came to pit road, Hamlin was caught speeding. Then while serving his penalty, Hamlin was caught speeding again. Then on the last lap of Stage #2, Hamlin crashed. In the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 1st, 3rd and 4th.
DraftKings $ 9,900 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1200