Dover Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Erik Jones
Dover Fantasy Spin – Erik Jones has had success at Dover, but I have low expectations on Sunday. The #43 team is struggling, and him showing up and being remotely competitive would be “Surprise Speed.” This year minus superspeedways and dirt tracks, Jones hasn’t finished better than 19th.
Dover Track History – Erik Jones has had some strong runs at Dover. Last year, Jones finished 10th, had a 13.2 average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In the two races prior to that, Jones had back-to-back clunker 22nd’s. In his seven Dover starts prior to that, Jones had an 11.7 average finish.

Todd Gilliland
Dover Fantasy Spin – Todd Gilliland has stepped up his game, so he might just surprise us again at Dover. He didn’t run well last year, but with his big boost in performance in recent races, there’s reason to be optimistic. On Sunday, I’m going to view Gilliland as a risky mid to high-teens driver but be prepared to get burned.
Dover Track History – Last year at Dover, Todd Gilliland was really bad. In the race, Gilliland finished 28th, had a 31.7 average running position and had the 34th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Gilliland did spin and got into the wall on lap 87, but he was way back in 34th at that time.

Michael McDowell
Dover Fantasy Spin – At Dover, I have low expectations for Michael McDowell. He had his all-time best “Monster Mile” result last year (17th) but in the eight races prior to that he literally finished between 22nd to 27th. On Sunday, I think he has a high-teens ceiling and that’s likely asking a lot from him.
Dover Track History – Dover hasn’t been a bright spot on the schedule for Michael McDowell, but he did have his best race last year, and fantasy racing is largely about “What have you done lately.” In 2022, McDowell finished 17th, ranked 18th for speed late in a run and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In the six races prior to that, McDowell finished between 24th to 26th, and I’m accepting all of those results at face value.  

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