Dover Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Dover and on Sunday, there’s no question the #5 will be tough to beat. Larson overcame a spin/shredded tire last year shortly before the midpoint to finish 6th, and then in his three races prior to that, Larson had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson is an elite performer at “The Monster Mile” and it ranks as one of his best tracks. He’s a recent winner and his average finish over his fourteen starts is 6.9. That ranks as his best average finish among any currently existing tracks that have been visited more than twice. Larson’s level of consistency has also been off the charts, and only once has he finished worse than 12th. At Dover over his last four races, Larson has a 3.0 average finish, a 4.7 average running position and he’s averaged leading 109 laps per race. Last year, Larson didn’t have an incident free race but he rallied to finish 6th. In the race, Larson started 3rd, led 19 laps, finished 6th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 156 while running in 7th, Larson spun (got slightly into the wall) and had a shredded tire. That damaged the #5 and dropped him off the lead lap, but he rallied back. When Stage #2 ended, Larson finished 16th. Then over the last Stage, Larson rallied back to finish 6th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 8th. In 2021, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019 he finished 3rd.

Ross Chastain
Dover Fantasy Spin – At Dover, look for Ross Chastain to be a contender. Chastain was one of the best last year, and for fantasy purposes, I’m also viewing that as his only relevant start. Ross Chastain is an aggressive racer, and I think his “attack the track” mentality will go a long way at “The Monster Mile.” On Sunday, look for Ross Chastain to be a top five contender.
Dover Track History – Last year at Dover, Ross Chastain had a hot rod. In the race he started 7th, finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 4.7 average running position, led the 2nd most laps (86), earned the 2nd best driver rating and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Chastain had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for speed late in a run.

Denny Hamlin
Dover Fantasy Spin – At Dover, look for Denny Hamlin to be a contender. Hamlin’s a recent winner (2020 #1) and last year, I wouldn’t argue with anybody who said he had the best car. I’ll note, Hamlin’s had quite a few recent misleading results, but when he avoids trouble, he’s consistently finished near the front. Since 2018 minus last year’s misleading result and asterisk mark results in 2020 #2 and spring 2019, Hamlin has a 4.4 average finish.
Dover Track History – At Dover, Denny Hamlin has performed at a high-level when he avoids trouble. Last year, Hamlin might’ve just had the best car but his race was anything but incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, led 67 laps, won Stage #1 but then following the Stage #1 pit stops, he lost a wheel which dropped him all the way back to the mid 20’s. Hamlin battled back though and was up to 4th on lap 240, but then Cody Ware spun in front of him and clipped the #11. That ended his competitive afternoon but to make things worse, he later got a speeding penalty. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 21st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, take note Hamlin ranked 10th overall but in segment #1 he ranked as having the fastest car on the track. In 2021, Hamlin had a great performance at Dover. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.6 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and he ranked 5th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2020 Race #2, Hamlin was a top five contender but finished a misleading 19th. In the race, Hamlin started 20th, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and was running in 3rd on lap 226 when he had to make an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel which led to his misleading result. In terms of speed, Hamlin was tied for having the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In race #1 2020, Hamlin had the field covered and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, led 115 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Hamlin led 218 laps and finished 5th.  

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