Dover Confidence Rankings / Post-Practice Predictions

On Sunday (Most likely really Monday), NASCAR will be racing at Dover! The “Monster Mile” is a unique 1.0-mile concrete oval that is physically demanding, and drivers have to get up on the wheel if they’re going to be fast. The only chance drivers will be able to take a breather, is under caution, and they better hope it’s not them because mayhem is always lurking, and Dover has “Big One” potential.

On Saturday, practice was held for Dover. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, maybe some want to qualify near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Dover Practice Notes, Dover Lap By Lap Speed Rankings Heat Chart and Dover 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Dover Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Dover Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 18th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 20
Dover Scoop – At Dover, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat. Larson is good at a lot of tracks, but Dover is arguably his best. Last year, Larson overcame a spin and a shredded tire to finish 6th, and in the three races prior to that his results were 1st ,2nd and 3rd. Heading into the weekend, Kyle Larson has won “Every other race” over the last four, so in theory he’s due again. Another attribute you have to like about Larson is that he’s fast every time he shows up to the track. In 2023 over the combined events, Larson ranks #1 for Green Flag Speed, Speed Early In A Run and Restart Speed. In practice, Larson said his ride quality is “Really Good”, said his car had speed and said he was good enough to come from wherever in the field to the front. That’s really encouraging since he’s starting 19th.
Dover Breakdown – Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer at “The Monster Mile.” Larson slayed this beast in 2019, and statistically it ranks as his best track in terms of average finish (6.9). Over his last four races, Larson has a 3.0 average finish, a 4.7 average running position and he’s averaged leading 109 laps per race. Last year, Larson didn’t have an incident free race, but he rallied to finish 6th. On lap 156 while running in 7th, Larson spun (got slightly into the wall) and had a shredded tire which damaged the #5 and it dropped him off the lead lap. When Stage #2 ended, Larson finished 16th. Then over the last Stage, Larson hit the afterburners and rallied back to finish 6th. In 2021, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019 he finished 3rd.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +400

Further Recommended Reading: Dover Finish Projections, DraftKings Dover Scoring Projections, FanDuel Dover Scoring Projections 

2) William Byron
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 12th | 10 Lap Avg – 4th
Dover Scoop – Look for William Byron to be a factor at Dover. The #24 is one of the best, week-in-and-week out and I don’t think that will change at “The Monster Mile” where he’s finished 4th in 2 of the last 3 races. In 2023 over the combined events, Byron has the best driver rating and the 2nd best green flag speed. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Breakdown – William Byron has performed at a high-level at Dover and as you read above, in 2 of the last 3 races he’s finished 4th. Last year, Bryon raced in a backup car and was mid-teens good but finished an asterisk mark 22nd. On lap 320 he was running in 16th, but then a caution during the pit cycle dropped him off the lead lap to 25th on lap 331. In the race, Byron had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and a 15.4 average running position. In the four Dover races prior to that minus race #1 2020 where he flat out struggled (28th), Byron had a 7.9 average finish. In 2021, Byron had a great car and ranked as one of the best. In the race, Byron finished 6th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, had a 4.2 average running position, led 21 laps and then finished 4th. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020 during the doubles, Byron finished 4th in race #2 but struggled in race #1 en route to a 28th. In 2019, Byron’s results were 8th and 13th.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $ 13,500 / DK Odds To Win +600

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 11th | 10 Lap Avg – 2nd
Dover Scoop – Denny Hamlin will be a contender at Dover. Hamlin’s a recent winner (2020 #1) and last year, I wouldn’t argue with anybody who said he had the best car. I’ll note, Hamlin’s had quite a few recent misleading results, but when he avoids trouble, he’s consistently finished near the front. Since 2018 minus last year’s misleading result and asterisk mark results in 2020 #2 and spring 2019, Hamlin has a 4.4 average finish.
Dover Breakdown – At Dover, Denny Hamlin is one of the best in the business and since 2018 in incident free races, Hamlin has a 4.4 average finish. Last year, Hamlin arguably had the best car, but he also had the most eventful afternoon which led to an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, led 67 laps, won Stage #1 but then following the Stage #1 pit stops, he lost a wheel which dropped him all the way back to the mid 20’s. Hamlin battled back and was up to 4th on lap 240, but then Cody Ware spun in front of him and clipped the #11 which ended his competitive afternoon. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 10th overall but in segment #1 prior to his problems starting, Hamlin had the fastest car on the track. In 2021, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.6 average running position, had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 7th. In 2020 during the doubles, Hamlin was a top five contender in race #2 but finished 19th (pitted for a loose wheel in the final Stage while running in 3rd) and in race #1, Hamlin had the field covered and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, led 115 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Hamlin finished 5th and led 218 laps.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +900