Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
William Byron
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, put Las Vegas winner, William Byron high on your radar. I view “Sin City” as the sister track and en route to victory lane there this spring, Byron had a 1.7 average running position, led 176 laps, won both Stages, had the best Total Speed Ranking and earned a near perfect driver rating. When the trophy was on the line, I don’t think Byron had the best car, but he was able to take advantage of the late caution to emerge victorious. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks minus Kansas #1 where he had problems while leading and Charlotte where he crashed like just about everyone else, Byron had a 7.8 average finish and a 7.0 average running position. Between all the combined events on this sub-track type, Byron’s Total Speed Ranking ranked as the 7th best. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, William Byron has performed at a high-level and in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished between 5th to 10th, with the outlier being perhaps his best race over that stretch where he might’ve had the best car. Last fall, Byron had a 7th place average running position, led 9 laps and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Last spring, Byron might’ve just had the best car, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 16th. In the race, Byron started 13th, finished 5th in Stage #1, led 25 laps but while leading in Stage #2 on lap 113, Byron had a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to 32nd. In fall 2021, Byron had a great car but finished a misleading 6th. In the race, Byron finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps but then during the last Stage while leading around lap 220 he pitted twice during a caution because of loose lug nuts. In the race, Byron had the best Green Flag Speed and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Byron was solid. In the race he finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 9th overall, had a 10.1 average running position and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three races prior to that his results were 8th, 10th and 5th.
Kyle Larson
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, the road to victory lane will likely go thru him. Larson was strong in both 2022 races, and back in 2021, Larson was the class of the field and could’ve easily had a season sweep. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Larson has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking over the combined events and at Las Vegas which I view to be the sister track, Larson was poised to win if the late caution didn’t come out. When the checkered flag waved, Larson finished 2nd, had a 2.2 average running position, the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and led 63 laps. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level in the #5. Over the last three races, Larson has the best average finish (3.7), the best average running position (5.8) and the best driver rating. Last fall, Larson had a solid showing. In the race he finished 8th, had an 8.9 average running position, had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking, and ranked 10th for Speed Late In A Run and Green Flag Speed. It was sort of a letdown since he was the favorite. In spring 2022, Larson was stout and finished runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6.3 average running position and led 29 laps. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the 3rd best Green Flag Speed, the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. I’ll note, Larson’s race wasn’t completely incident free. While leading around lap 35, Larson had a slow pit stop that dropped him outside the top ten. Then later in Stage #1, Larson had a long stop to repair some fender damage. In 2021, Larson clobbered the competition, and he could’ve easily pulled out the broom for the season. In fall 2021, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 130 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2021, Larson was stellar, but victory lane eluded him thanks to late cautions. In the race, Larson started deep in the field in 32nd, but cracked the top ten on lap 12! When Stage #1 ended, Larson finished 2nd. In Stage #2 he finished 1st. Late in the race, Larson looked to have the race in hand, but late cautions cost him what looked like a certain victory. During the final restart with 2 laps to go, Larson was pushing Blaney and got into the wall, which then tumbled him back in the running order to his 19th place finish. In the race, Larson led 132 laps (49.4% of the race), had a 3.2 average running position, was tied for having the best driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking.
Denny Hamlin
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin’s an elite performer at Kansas who’ll be tough to beat. At this mid-west 1.5-mile oval, he’s a three-time winner and in 2022 in the Next Gen here, Hamlin swept the top 4 and had a series best 3.0 average finish. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks minus Las Vegas #1, Hamlin had a 4.4 average finish, and in the Playoffs where everybody brought their A-game his average finish was 5.7. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin is tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, has the 2nd best average running position (6.3) and his average finish is a misleading 8.5. At Las Vegas, Hamlin was running in 3rd before the late caution came out and that led to his 11th. In that event, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and a 6.2 average running position.
Kansas Track History – Denny Hamlin has been strong at Kansas and over the last seven races, Hamlin has 2 wins 5 results in the top 5 and a 5.7 average finish. Last fall, Hamlin didn’t have an incident free race (equipment interference penalty during the Stage caution) but finished runner-up. In the race, Hamlin strength was being fast late in a run, and in that speed analytic he ranked #1. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 8th but take note in the final segment when the trophy was on the line, the #11 was the fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, got an equipment interference penalty around lap 35, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then rallied to finish 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 6th best Green Flag Speed and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2021, Hamlin finished 5th and had a 6.9 average running position. In spring 2021, Hamlin had one of the best cars and was a contender to win, but he finished an asterisk mark 12th after getting into the wall hard while leading on lap 242. In the race, Hamlin started 20th, finished 9th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had an 8.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 3rd best. Over the segments, Hamlin had speed rankings of 11th, 3rd, 2nd and 2nd.
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