On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Kansas! Kansas is a smooth 1.5-mile track that has progressive banking that offers drivers multiple grooves, and they can race from the top of the track to the bottom. To prepare for Kansas, make sure you look back to Las Vegas as a reference. It’s the track with the most correlation, and it’s also the only race held at a conventional 1.5-mile track in 2023. Auto Club isn’t as much of a similar track, but I think it’s a good data point to still look back too. The same tires that were used at Las Vegas and Auto Club earlier this year, are once again being used this weekend.

On Saturday, practice was held for Kansas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Kansas Practice Notes and Kansas 5,10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Kansas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Kansas Full Field Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 10th | 10 Lap Avg – 5th | 15 Lap Avg – 2nd
Kansas Scoop – Martin Truex Jr. is fresh off a win at Dover and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he goes back-to-back. At Kansas, Truex is a 2-time winner and in 11 of the last 12 races he’s finished in the top 10. Since 2020 at this Midwest track, Truex has a series best 6.0 average finish and he’s the only driver who’s 6 for 6 at finishing in the top ten. In practice, Truex had a hot rod and Clint Bowyer felt that he had the best car and was even better than Hamlin over a long run. At Las Vegas this spring where there’s correlation, Truex was running in 4th before the late caution came out but finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. For the afternoon his Total Speed Ranking was the 4th best. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Truex had the 3rd best total Speed Ranking for the season.
Kansas Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the premiere performers at Kansas and over the last four races, he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 5th to 7th and has a 6th place average finish. Last fall, Truex had a great race. In the event he finished 5th, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and led 24 laps. Truex even got a speeding penalty, so his afternoon wasn’t exactly smooth sailing. Last spring, Truex had a great car and finished 6th, despite having a flat tire right at the end of Stage #2 while running in 4th. During a caution around lap 200, Truex was also caught speeding on pit road. In terms of speed stats, Truex was the 3rd fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 6th best. In 2021, Truex had results of 6th and 7th for the season.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +750 

Further Recommended Reading – Kansas Finish Projections, DraftKings Kansas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Kansas Scoring Projections

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 1st | 10 Lap Avg – 1st | 15 Lap Avg – 1st | 20 Lap Avg – 1st
Kansas Scoop – At Kansas, Denny Hamlin will be a force to be reckoned with. At this Midwest track, Hamlin’s a 3-time winner and last year in the Next Gen between the combined races, Hamlin had a series best 3.0 average finish. Since Kansas last spring at high-speed 1.5-mile intermediate tracks (6 races), Hamlin has a series best 5.5 average finish. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin is tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and at Las Vegas which is the more similar of the two, Hamlin was running in 3rd before the late caution came out (finished 11th). In practice, Hamlin was a speed standout and he ranked #1 for every average ranking from 5 to 25 lap averages. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Breakdown – Denny Hamlin ranks among the premiere performers at Kansas. Over the last seven races, Hamlin has 2 wins and a series best 5.7 average finish. Last fall, Hamlin didn’t have an incident free race (equipment interference penalty during the Stage caution) but finished runner-up. In the race, Hamlin’s strength was being fast late in a run, and in that speed analytic he ranked #1. Over the final quarter of the race, the #11 was the fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, got an equipment interference penalty around lap 35, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then rallied to finish 4th when the checkered flag waved. In fall 2021, Hamlin finished 5th and had a 6.9 average running position. In spring 2021, Hamlin had one of the best cars and was a contender to win, but he finished an asterisk mark 12th after getting into the wall hard while leading on lap 242. In the race, Hamlin started 20th, finished 9th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 3rd best. Over the segments, Hamlin had speed rankings of 11th, 3rd, 2nd and 2nd.
DraftKings $10.700 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Odds To Win +475

3) Wiliam Byron
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 13th | 10 Lap Avg – 8th | 15 Lap Avg – 6th
Kansas Scoop – At Kansas, William Byron will be tough to beat. The #24 has been the fastest car on the track in 2023 (Total Speed Rankings), and there’s every reason to expect them to crank out the speed at Kansas. Las Vegas is a great barometer for who’ll be strong on Sunday and this spring at “Sin City”, Byron finished 1st, had a 1.7 average running position, led 176 laps, won both Stages, had the best Total Speed Ranking and earned a near perfect driver rating. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks minus Kansas #1 where he had problems while leading and Charlotte where he crashed like just about everyone else, Byron had a 7.8 average finish and for the season his Track Type Total Speed Ranking was the 7th best. In practice, Byron got into the wall, but he later returned to the track and laid down some quick lap times. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Breakdown – At Kansas, William Byron has performed at a high-level and in 6 of the last 7 races, he’s finished between 5th to 10th. In 2 of the last 3 races here, take note he’s had problems while leading, so just imagine if those races would’ve been incident free. Last fall, Byron finished 6th, had a 7th place average running position and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Byron might’ve just had the best car, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 16th. In the race, Byron finished 5th in Stage #1, led 25 laps but while leading in Stage #2 on lap 113, Byron had a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to 32nd. In fall 2021, Byron had a great car but finished a misleading 6th. In the race, Byron finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps but then during the last Stage while leading around lap 220 he pitted twice during a caution because of loose lug nuts. In the race, Byron had the best Green Flag Speed and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In the four Kansas races prior to that, Byron had results of 9th, 8th, 10th and 5th.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +800