Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is always tough to beat at Darlington and on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the road to victory lane goes thru him. At “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 57% of the time and in the top ten 76% of the time. Over the last four Darlington races minus last spring where he had one of the best cars but his race wasn’t incident free, Hamlin has a 2.7 average finish. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’s always a factor. Last fall, the #11 was fast but came up just short at the end. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 2nd, had a 5.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Hamlin was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south. Hamlin’s pit strategy had him shuffled back to 9th on lap 248 (stayed out on older tires longer than others) and then shortly after that a caution came out and he had a slow stop that dropped him back to 18th. Right after that, Hamlin was caught up in the “Big One” following a restart. In the race, Hamlin was the 6th fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 11th best but take note his speed over the segments were 13th, 4th, 2nd and then 28th. In fall 2021, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 146 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best driver rating and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great performance. He finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, finished 5th overall, had a 4.3 average running position, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking.
Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s never won here, but he’s consistently knocked on the door to victory lane, and over his last four incident free races his results are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Last year was a disaster for Larson here, but he’s due for a bounce back. One attribute you have to love about Larson is his prowess at high-wear intermediates. He’s had some recent misleading results, but he has won 2 of the last 5 races on this sub-track type. On Sunday, look for the #5 to be fast and Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Kyle Larson is one of the best in the business but “The Lady In Black” was like a buzz saw for him last year with him having major problems in both races. Last fall, Larson had some sort of issue under his hood which dropped him a handful of laps down around lap 79, and then later spun out on lap 192 and hit the wall, but by some miracle he finished 12th. Personally, I wouldn’t read into that race at all for him. Last spring, Larson was one of the best, but his race wasn’t incident free, and he finished last (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th after driving up thru the field, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. In the four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish, a 4.0 average running position and he averaged leading 121 laps per race. In fall 2021, Larson was stellar. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 156 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and then finished 2nd, hot on Denny Hamlin’s heels when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for speed late in a run. In spring 2021, Larson had a great car and late in the race he gave Martin Truex Jr. a run for his money. In the race, Larson started 14th, finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th he was caught speeding on pit road.
Ross Chastain
Darlington Fantasy Spin – At Darlington, put Ross Chastain on your short list of favorites and on Sunday, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Chastain’s track record is quite bad, and he had a pair of asterisk mark results last year, but I have no doubt he’s primed to have a strong showing if he can avoid trouble. I consider Dover to have some correlation and he recently finished 2nd there.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Ross Chastain has been a top five contender in three straight races, but to show for it, he’s only walked away with one good result. Last fall, Chastain started 12th, finished 6th in Stage #1, but then on lap 164 while running in 5th, Chastain made an unexpected pit stop and said something didn’t feel right. Then a few laps later he made another pit stop and at that point he was now doomed to his 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings he ranked 11th but take note his speed over the segments were 8th, 4th, 20th and 10th. Last spring, Chastain was clearly one of the best. In the race, Chastain finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 26 laps but then at the start of the final Stage while battling Hamlin for the lead, he crashed which led to his 30th. In the race, Chastain had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking with his speeds over the segments he competed being 2nd, 1st and 4th. In fall 2021, Chastain was extremely competitive. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and then 3rd when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Chastain started 23rd, had an 8.8 average running position, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the final segment when the trophy was on the line, Chastain was the fastest driver on the track. In spring 2021, Chastain finished 15th.
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