Darlington Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday afternoon, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington! “The Track Too Tough To Tame” will mark the halfway point of the regular season. Darlington is a unique 1.33 mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is extreme, and the driver is a difference maker. Often times at Darlington, you’ll see the same drivers finish up front, since this race is in the drivers hands more than others.

On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes and Darlington 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet Heat Chart. IMPORTANT NOTE when looking at practice lap speed rankings, Group #1 cars had faster track conditions. That is highlighted in the Heat Chart just linked.

Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Avg – 12th | 20 Lap Avg – 11th | 30 Lap Avg – 1st
Darlington Scoop – At Darlington, the road to victory lane might very well go thru Kyle Larson. He’s never won here, but he’s consistently knocked on the door to victory lane. The high-line is the fast line, and nobody is better than Larson at running that groove. One attribute you have to like about Larson is his prowess at high-wear intermediates. Going back to last year on this sub-track type, Larson’s won 2 of the 5 races and his track type Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 5th best. In practice, Larson had the best 30-lap average despite being in the slower Group B.
Darlington Breakdown – At Darlington, Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer. Larson’s never won here but make no mistake he’s absolutely one of the best. Over his last four incident free Darlington races, Larson’s results are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. In 2022, neither Darlington race was incident free for him. Last fall, Larson had a super eventful race which included an unexpected pit stop for some sort of engine related issue and a spin which included him getting into the wall but when the checkered flag waved, he finished 12th. Personally, I wouldn’t read into that race any. Last spring, Larson was one of the best but you would never know that by his last place finish (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th after driving up thru the field, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. In the four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish and averaged leading 121 laps per race. In fall 2021, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 156 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking, a 3rd place average running position and then finished 2nd. In spring 2021, Larson had a great car and late in the race he gave Martin Truex Jr. a run for his money. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th he was caught speeding on pit road.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +450

Further Recommended Reading: Darlington Finish Projections, DraftKings Darlington Scoring Projections, FanDuel Darlington Scoring Projections

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Avg – 16th | 20 Lap Avg – 8th | 30 Lap Avg – 6th
Darlington Scoop – Martin Truex Jr. is always tough to beat at Darlington and in his retro Auto Owners Paint Scheme, the competition will be in trouble. At “The Lady In Black”, Truex is a two-time winner and if last fall would’ve been incident free, he likely would’ve notched his 3rd “W.” Since 2020 at Darlington despite having three asterisk mark results, Truex has the best driver rating.
Darlington Breakdown – At Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. has been a super-elite performer. Last fall, Truex nearly notched his 3rd Darlington win, but on lap 328 while leading, Truex developed water pump issues which marked the end of his race leading to his 31st. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 48 laps, had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Truex was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Truex led 28 laps, finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.4 average running position but then in the final Stage things went south for him. On lap 260 he was in 4th, but then during that restart he spun and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 4th. In fall 2021, Truex had a great car and finished 4th despite his race not being incident free. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, but then in Stage #2 he made an unexpected pit stop on lap 162, which was shortly followed by a caution, which trapped him a lap down in the 20’s. Truex battled back though and was up to 2nd on lap 311, but then during a caution around lap 319 he was caught speeding on pit road. In terms of speed analytics, Truex was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Truex had the “Perfect Race” and put on a display of domination en route to victory lane. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 248 laps and earned a perfect driver rating and a perfect Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +750

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Avg – 21st | 20 Lap Avg – 12th | 30 Lap Avg – 9th
Darlington Scoop – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. At “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 57%, of the time and in the top ten 76% of the time. Over the last four Darlington races minus last spring where he might’ve just potentially had the best car but crashed, Hamlin has a 2.7 average finish. Last fall, Hamlin nearly raced his way to victory lane and notched another “W.” When it comes to racing at high-wear intermediates, Hamlin has the 3rd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking going back to 2022. Fresh off a win at Kansas, I think Hamlin has a great chance to go back-to-back in the win column.
Darlington Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is one of the premiere performers at Darlington who’s always a factor. Since 2020 in incident free races, Hamlin has 2-wins, a 2.8 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 5 every race. Last fall, the #11 was a hot rod and Hamlin finished 2nd. Additionally, Hamlin earned the best driver rating, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had a 5.4 average running position. Over the final quarter of the race, the #11 was the fastest car on the track. Last spring, Hamlin had one of the best cars but was involved in a crash which led to his asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the back, finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and led 42 laps. In fall 2021, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 146 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great performance. He finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, finished 5th overall, had a 4.3 average running position, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020 over the Darlington trio of races, Hamlin had problems during the final green flag pit cycle in race #3 while running in 3rd (finished 13th), won race #2 and then finished 5th in race #1.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +900