Charlotte Coca Cola 600 Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday (or Monday!), NASCAR will race at Charlotte for the Coca Cola 600. This crown jewel event is a test of endurance for the teams, the machines and many at home. This is a unique race in many ways. Not only is it the longest race of the year, but it’s also broken up into four Stages of 100/100/100/100 laps. This is a long race and look for the track to transition throughout.
Charlotte is a 1.5-mile D-shaped oval. It’s not quite the shape of Kansas or Las Vegas, but I would really study those two high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since they have correlation, and since there was no on track activity prior to the race. Here’s a look at High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings in 2023, and at High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings Since 2022.
Here’s Charlotte Starting Lineup.
Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Full Field Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 12th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Charlotte Scoop – In the Charlotte Coca Cola 600, the road to victory lane will likely go thru Kyle Larson. Larson could easily be 2 for 2 at winning Charlotte during his tenure in the #5, and he could also easily be 2 for 2 at winning at the high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has the best Total Speed Ranking and is 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd after being denied the win late in both races (late caution at Las Vegas, punted at Kansas). Additionally, between those races, Larson has the best average running position (4.8), the 2nd best driver rating and he’s averaging leading the 2nd most laps per race (74.0).
Charlotte Breakdown – In the #5 at Charlotte, Kyle Larson could easily be 2 for 2 at reaching victory lane. Last year, Larson had what he called the “Worst Race Of his life” but he still likely would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution. In the race, Larson started in the back due to unapproved adjustments, got a pit penalty on lap 33, got another pit penalty around lap 61, spun on lap 166 while running around 10th but then after that he hit the after burner and drove to the front. In Stage #3 he finished 3rd and then in the final Stage, Larson led 50 laps and was the leader at the 600-mile point, but he was swept up in late carnage in over-time. When the checkered flag waved, Larson finished 9th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings he ranked 13th but take note his speed over the segments were 21st, 20th, 5th and then 2nd. In 2021, Larson put on a display of domination. In the race he won the opening three Stages, led 327 laps, had a 1.3 average running position and was just .5 shy of having a perfect driver rating. Also in the race, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +350
2) Denny Hamlin
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Charlotte Scoop – Denny Hamlin, the defending Coca Cola 600 champion will be tough to beat. Charlotte has been a great track for Hamlin, and he’s also been stellar at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year. In 2023 at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane at Kansas (Best Total Speed Ranking and led 34 laps) and at Las Vegas he finished 11th, but take note before the late caution came out, he was running in 3rd. Between those combined races, Hamlin has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. At high-speed 1.5’s going back to Kansas last spring, Hamlin has a series best 4.9 average finish.
Charlotte Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has been elite at Charlotte. He’s the defending champ and over the last three races, Hamlin has a series best 3.3 average finish. Last year, Hamlin didn’t have the best car, but he survived the “Mega Mayhem” and raced his way to victory lane after late carnage ensued. In the race, Hamlin started on the pole, led 15 laps, finished 10th in Stage #1, was involved in a “Big One” in Stage #2 while running near 10th, finished 10th in Stage #3 and was running in 4th on lap 391 before mass mayhem late ensued. In the race, Hamlin had a 7.1 average running position and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Hamlin finished 7th, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and a 10.2 average running position. In 2020 Race #2, Hamlin started deep in the field in 29th, but navigated his way up to a 2nd place finish. In the 2020 600, Hamlin’s evening unraveled when he lost a weight ballast on the track during pace laps. When the green flag waved, he was in the garage and didn’t get out on the track until lap #6. Because of those problems, don’t read into Hamlin’s 29th place finish.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +800
3) William Byron
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Charlotte Scoop – The #24 is fast every week, and Charlotte will be no different. Byron doesn’t have a great track record, but what I do like is his prowess displayed at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this year. In 2023 on this sub-track type, Byron raced his way to victory lane at Las Vegas and then battled back to finish 3rd at Kansas despite his race not being incident free. Between those races, Byron is tied for the best average finish (2.0), has the best driver rating, he’s averaged leading the most laps per race (93.0) and his Total Speed Ranking is the 6th best. One attribute I like about Byron heading into the weekend is his momentum and over the last three races his average finish is 2.7.
Charlotte Breakdown – Charlotte hasn’t been one of William Byron’s better tracks on paper, but he’s run well in recent races. Last year, Byron looked to be a top ten performer but finished an asterisk mark 32nd. On lap 183 he was running in 8th, but then shortly after that he was caught up in a “Big One” which marked the end of his race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 5th. In 2021, Byron was stout and was the fastest driver late in a run. In the race, Byron finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, 2nd in Stage #3 and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Byron led 19 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +650
