Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Sonoma for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Sonoma is a high tire-wear technical 11 turn road course (some say 12). Joey Logano has once called Sonoma the “Short track of road courses.” This isn’t an “attack the track” road course, this is a race where drivers need to be smooth off corners and manage their tires. That trait often plays into the hand of savvy veterans.

On Saturday, NASCAR held a short practice session for Sonoma. Keep in mind in practices, teams have different agenda’s for how they want to approach the sessions (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Sonoma Practice Notes, Sonoma 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Sonoma Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings and Sonoma Practice Speeds.

Here’s the Sonoma Starting Lineup.

Sonoma Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Tyler Reddick
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 3-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 9th
Sonoma Outlook – At Sonoma, Tyler Reddick will be tough to beat. Reddick’s won 3 of the last 5 road course races, and this spring in the first race on this track type with the new rules package, the #45 was in a zip code of its own in terms of speed and Reddick put on a display of domination. Over the combined road course races since 2022, Tyler Reddick ranks 2nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Additionally, since 2022 on this track type minus Sonoma, Reddick has a 3.8 average finish, a 5.5 average running position and he’s averaged leading 20 laps per race.
Sonoma History Breakdown – At Sonoma, don’t hit the panic button when you see Tyler Reddick’s track record, because he’s been anything but good on paper. At his “home track”, Reddick is 2 for 2 at having problems. Last year, Reddick showed top five potential, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 50 he was running in 4th, but then shortly after that he was penalized for speeding on pit road. Then early in the Final Stage back in traffic, Josh Bilicki spun, and Reddick got into him and then said something broke. After that, you could stick a fork in Reddick, and he went on to finish 35th. Prior to his speeding penalty, Reddick consistently ran around the top five. In segment #1 which was incident free for him, the #8 was the 6th fastest car on the track. In 2021 in his Sonoma debut, Reddick finished 19th. Additionally, Reddick had a 17.5 average running position and the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Reddick did make an unexpected pit stop in Stage #2, but he was running around 20th at that time.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +400

Further Recommended Reading = Sonoma Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Sonoma Scoring Projections, FanDuel Sonoma Scoring Projections

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 5th
Sonoma Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a three-time winner at Sonoma and on Sunday, look for him to be tough to beat. If Truex didn’t have engine problems in 2017, then he could’ve potentially won 3 of the last 5 races here. One attribute I like about Truex heading into the weekend is the #19’s weekly level of performance. Since Dover minus Darlington where he arguably had the best car, Truex has a 4.3 average finish. In practice, Truex liked his car and said its close.
Sonoma History Breakdown – At Sonoma, Martin Truex Jr. is arguably the premiere performer. He’s a three-time winner and since 2016 minus last year and 2017 where he had engine problems, Truex has 2 wins, a 2.5 average finish and he’s averaged leading 30.3 laps per race. Last year, Truex finished 26th but I wouldn’t hit the panic button about that result. It was a down year for JGR on this track type, and Truex was really a low double-digit driver anyways, but he made a late pit strategy pit stop while running in 13th hoping to catch a lucky break caution which didn’t happen. In 2021, Truex started mid-pack in 19th but when the checkered flag waved, he finished 3rd and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019 in the next most recent race, Truex finished 1st, led 59 laps, and ranked #1 across all the speed stats. In 2018, Truex had a phenomenal car and raced his way to victory lane. Additionally, he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 62 laps.
DraftKings $8,800 / FanDuel $8,200 / DK Odds To Win +1000

3) Kyle Larson
Start 16th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 1st | 10 Lap Avg –1st
Sonoma Outlook – At Sonoma, put Kyle Larson right near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar. Larson smoked the field in 2021 en route to victory lane in dominant fashion, and last year he probably could’ve gone back-to-back if the #5 team would’ve approached the race differently and not lost a wheel. At road courses in Hendrick equipment, Larson is already a four-time winner, winning most recently at Watkins Glen last summer. On Sunday, Larson might just get road course win #5 despite starting 16th.
Sonoma History Breakdown – In the #5 at Sonoma, Kyle Larson has been fast and could easily be 2 for 2 at reaching victory lane. Last year, Larson may have very well had the best car but inferior pit strategy and then later losing a wheel did him in, leading to an asterisk mark 15th. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In 2021, Larson was the class of the field, and there’s no debate about that. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking. Larson’s speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 2nd and then 1st.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +450