Nashville Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Michael McDowell
Nashville Fantasy Spin – Michael McDowell had a great performance last year at Nashville and finished 13th, but can he repeat the feat? I can’t say I like his odds for that. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track grouping, McDowell has finished between 22nd to 28th every race, and his Speed Ranking over those combined events ranks 23rd. At Nashville, I’m going to view McDowell as a high-teens performer heading into the weekend.
Nashville Track History – At Nashville, Michael McDowell has a great track record for a driver of his tier and over the combined events his average finish is 14.5. Last year, McDowell had a strong low double-digit performance. In the race, McDowell finished 13th, had a 13.8 average running position and his Speed Ranking was the 14th best. In 2021, McDowell finished 16th. In the race, McDowell was the 21st Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 28th best Green Flag Speed, the 30th best Total Speed Ranking and a 20.5 average running position. With 20 laps to go, McDowell was running in 21st but he had enough fuel to run harder than others to close out the race.

Justin Haley
Nashville Fantasy Spin – At Nashville, I think Justin Haley has high-teens upside, but I wouldn’t get any more bullish than that. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5’s grouping where there’s correlation, Haley has a 16.0 average finish, a 21.8 average running position and his Speed Ranking ranks 21st. At Dover which I view to have the most correlation, he finished 23rd this spring.
Nashville Track History – Last year at Nashville in his only relevant start, Justin Haley was a low 20’s performer. In the race, Haley finished 23rd and had a 21.8 average running position. In 2021 in the less competitive #77, Haley crashed early and finished 35th.

Corey LaJoie
Nashville Fantasy Spin – At Nashville, I think Corey LaJoie is a high-teens to low-twenties driver. The #7 team is running well for a team of this tier and since Dover, LaJoie’s had a result in the top 24 every race and has a 19.3 average finish. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Grouping, LaJoie has finished in the top 20 every race and has a 17.75 average finish.
Nashville Track History – At Nashville, Corey LaJoie hasn’t been as bad as you’re likely thinking. He’s competed in both races and between the combined events his average finish is 17.5. Last year, LaJoie finished 20th and had a 24.2 average running position. In 2021, LaJoie finished 15th, had a 26.5 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. That said, LaJoie was able to take advantage of the final fuel run because he could run harder than others and passed some others by default who had to do a splash and go. With just 20 laps to go, LaJoie was back in 22nd.

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