Nashville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday night, NASCAR will be returning to Nashville! Nashville is a 1.33-concrete D-shaped oval which is unique. I view Nashville as somewhere in the middle between Dover and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks. (Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings).

On Friday night, NASCAR held an extended practice session so teams could tune-up for Nashville, and also so NBC could get in a telecast practice session. Make sure you check out our Nashville Practice Notes, Nashville 5,10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Nashville Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings. 

Here’s the Nashville Starting Lineup/ Qualifying Results.

Nashville Full Field Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1st / 10 Lap Average – 3rd / 15 Lap Average – 5th / 20 Lap Average – 5th
Nashville Scoop – At Nashville, there’s a lot to like about Martin Truex Jr. The #19 is hot, Truex was a standout performer last, and this year at tracks where there’s correlation, he’s arguably been the best. Heading into the weekend, you have to love the recent form of the #19 team. They’re fresh off a win and since Dover minus Darlington where he might’ve just had the best car but crashed, Truex has a 3.6 average finish. This year over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track grouping where there’s correlation, Truex has the best Total Speed Ranking, a 4.8 average finish and a series best 6.4 average running position. Dover is arguably the single most similar track, and at that venue, Truex led 68 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In practice, Truex had great speed and ranked in the top five as you see above over 5,10,15,20 and 25 lap averages. At Nashville, look for Truex to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Nashville Breakdown – On paper, Truex is 2 for 2 at finishing 22nd at Nashville, but you can get out an asterisk mark for both results. Last year, Truex was one of the best, but he pitted during the late caution with about 10 to go while running in 4th. That dropped him back to 15th, and then he had a horrendous restart which tanked him to a 22nd. In the race, Truex won the two opening Stages, led 82 laps and had a 4.4 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Truex ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Truex started deep in the field, got two pit road penalties and then had to come in for a splash and go near the end. Right before coming in for his splash and go in the closing laps, Truex was running in 13th.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +450

Further Recommended Reading – Nashville Finish Projections, DraftKings Nashville Scoring Projections, FanDuel Nashville Scoring Projections

2) Kyle Larson
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 7th / 10 Lap Average – 5th / 15 Lap Average – 4th / 20 Lap Average – 4th
Nashville Scoop – At Nashville, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. The #5 team is fast, and by no means do I think he’ll disappoint in “Music City” where he won the inaugural race in dominant fashion and has a series best 2.5 average finish. I view Dover as arguably the most similar track, and the #5 might’ve just been the best car there until becoming a “Chastain Casualty.” Over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-mile track grouping which has correlation, the #5 team has fielded cars that were capable of potentially winning 3 of the 4 races. To close out practice during his final run, the #5 really showed up on the speed charts and posted quick lap times. Larson ended practice with the 4th best 15 and 20 lap averages, and the best 25 lap average. 
Nashville Breakdown – At Nashville, Kyle Larson has been stout and between the combined events, Larson ranks #1 for having the best average finish (2.5), the best average running position (5.6) and the best driver rating. Last year, Larson was solid and finished 4th, but I would say that overrates him and he was really about 10th place good. In the race, Larson had a 9.8 average running position and the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. With 10 laps to go before a late caution came out in which he stayed out and got track position, Larson was running in 11th. In 2021, Larson smoked the field and put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson had a 1.4 average running position, earned a near perfect driver rating and led 264 laps. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +600

3) William Byron
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 5th / 10 Lap Average – 4th / 15 Lap Average – 3rd / 20 Lap Average – 3rd
Nashville Scoop – At Nashville, look for William Byron to be a factor. The #24 shows up with speed every week, and in 2023 he ranks #1 in terms of Season To Date Total Speed Rankings at Conventional Ovals. Over the Dover + High-Speed 1.5-mile track grouping, Byron ranks 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and over those combined events his average finish is 2.5, with him having a result in the top 4 every race! At Nashville, Byron has shown potential in both races and on Sunday, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll potentially be a factor to win.
Nashville Breakdown – At Nashville, William Byron has run well in both races, even though he has results on the polar opposite ends of the spectrum. Last year, Byron showed potential, but his afternoon was also short, and he finished 35th. In the race, Byron started 13th, was up to 6th on lap 48, but then that lap he had contact with Elliott which looked minor, slid up the track and didn’t hit anything and then his race was over. Byron said his car was broke after that. Shortly before during the lightening delay, Byron reported that his car felt funny down the straightaway, so I’m sure that contact contributed to his demise. In 2021 en route to his 3rd, Byron started in the back. In the race, Byron finished around 17th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 and at lap 240 at the start of the long green flag run to the finish, he was running in 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Byron was the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 8th best Green Flag Speed and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +750