New Hampshire Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday (or perhaps Monday), NASCAR will be racing at New Hampshire. Loudon is a flat one-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter flat track.” Other shorter flat tracks that I would recommend that you look back to for correlation purposes are Gateway, Phoenix and Richmond (Shorter-flat track 2023 Total Speed Rankings). New Hampshire is a relatively quick race, and track position is king. It’s just 301 laps with Stages set for 75/185/301.

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our New Hampshire Practice Notes, New Hampshire 5,10,15 and 20 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet and New Hampshire Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings.

Here’s the New Hampshire Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

New Hampshire Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Christopher Bell
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
New Hampshire Scoop – Christopher Bell has basically been unbeatable at New Hampshire and on Sunday, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Bell is the defending New Hampshire champ, and in NASCAR’s top two divisions minus Cup 2020 where he had multiple problems, Bell’s results are 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 1st. When it comes to shorter-flat track prowess, Bell’s been super-elite and since Richmond #1 2022, Bell has a series best 6.1 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Bell has the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and a 7.0 average finish. In practice, Bell was a stopwatch standout and was clearly the fastest driver in Group B (track was faster in Group A due to track conditions).
New Hampshire Breakdown – Christopher Bell has performed at a super-elite level at New Hampshire and in the last two races, he’s come home with results of 1st and 2nd. Last year, Bell found another gear late in the race and came up clutch, racing his way to victory lane. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position and led 42 laps, which I’ll note were the final 42. In terms of speed stats, Bell was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. Take note in the 4th segment, Bell was the fastest driver on the track who wasn’t out of sync with the field pit strategy wise. In 2021, Bell had a great performance and finished 2nd. In the race, Bell had a 6.6 average running position, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. At the end, Bell fielded the 2nd fastest car in the final segment and was chasing down Aric Almirola for the win. If the race went the advertised distance, he might’ve just been able to pull it off. In 2020, Bell looked great but he had multiple problems and finished 28th. In the Xfinity series at New Hampshire, Bell’s 3 for 3 at reaching victory lane.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +350

Further Recommended Reading – New Hampshire Finish Projections, DraftKings New Hampshire Scoring Projections, FanDuel New Hampshire Scoring Projections

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
New Hampshire Scoop – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at New Hampshire and on Sunday, I have no doubt he’ll be a factor. Truex has never won at this “Home Track” of his, but he’s consistently finished well and often been dominant. At New Hampshire, I think Truex subjectively had the best car last year and in 7 of the last 8 races he’s finished between 3rd to 7th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has been strong. He likely would’ve won at Richmond if there wasn’t a late caution and finished 5th at Gateway. Another attribute you have to like about Truex is the current competitive state of the #19. Since Martinsville minus Darlington, road courses and superspeedways, Truex has a 3.3 average finish. In practice, Truex really liked his car and was fast. In terms of both 5 and 10 lap averages, Truex ranked 1st.
New Hampshire Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has never won at New Hampshire, but he’s performed at a super-elite level and in 7 of the last 8 races he’s finished between 3rd to 7th, with his only outlier being 2021 where he was damaged early in the rain. Over that stretch, Truex ranks #1 for average finish (5.5), #1 for average running position (7.0), #1 for average laps led (80.6) and his driver rating is the best. Last year, the #19 was a hot rod and Truex ranked #1 in our PROS Rankings for subjectively having the best car. In the race, Truex won the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 172 laps, had a 3.2 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 1st and take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 1st and then 4th. During his final pit stop, Truex took two tires and his car simply wasn’t as competitive after that. In 2021, Truex finished 12th, but it’s tough to have any serious takeaways from that race since he was damaged in the early rain shower while running in 2nd. In the six New Hampshire races prior to that, Truex had results of 3rd, 6th, 4th, 5th, 3rd and 7th.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +350

3) Kevin Harvick
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
New Hampshire Scoop –Kevin Harvick is a shorter-flat track master who should be on your short list of favorites for New Hampshire. At “The Magic Mile”, Harvick’s a 4-time winner and in 8 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last five, Harvick has 2 wins, a series best 3.6 average finish, a series best 6.0 average running position and his driver rating is the best. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best average finish (6.7) and the 3rd best driver rating. Going back to 2021 at shorter-flat tracks minus Richmond #1 2021 and Gateway 2022, Harvick has a 5.6 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 10 every race.
New Hampshire Breakdown – Kevin Harvick has been a super-elite performer at New Hampshire. Last year, Harvick had a great car and prior to the last caution where he elected to take two tires which didn’t seem to work out well for him, I think he was poised to finish in 2nd. In the race, Harvick started 10th, finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 5.2 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Harvick had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 7th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Harvick finished 4th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 66 laps and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Harvick had a 4.4 average running position, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three races prior to that, Harvick had results of 5th, 1st and 1st.
DraftKings $9,600 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +900