Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Pocono for the HighPoint.com 400! The “Tricky Triangle” is a huge 2.5-mile flat triangle that I view as a unique track. Pocono races are always heavy on strategy, and like road courses they are often run backwards, so teams make as few pit stops as possible to position themselves to be up front at the end.

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held for Pocono. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Pocono Practice Notes, Pocono Lap By Lap Speed Rankings and Pocono 5,10 and 15 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Pocono Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. 

Pocono Full Field Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 8th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Pocono Outlook – Denny Hamlin’s a legend at Pocono and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. At “The Tricky Triangle”, Hamlin’s a six-time winner, and that’s not even counting last year’s race where he crossed the finish line first. If you give Hamlin back that “W”, then he’s the All-Time Pocono wins leader with 7. At Pocono since 2019 #2 minus a misleading result in 2021 #2 where he ducked down pit road with 4 to go for fuel while running in 2nd, then Denny Hamlin has a 1.8 average finish over the last six races. Another attribute you have to like about Hamlin is the speed of the #11. In 2023 in terms of Total Speed Rankings at “Conventional Ovals”, Hamlin ranks #1 in the series.
Pocono Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is one of the premiere performers at Pocono and since 2019 when you credit him with where he crossed the finish line last year, Hamlin has 3 wins, a series best 4.1 average finish, a series best 7.1 average running position and his driver rating is the best. Last year at “The Tricky Triangle”, Hamlin crossed the finish line first but in post-race inspection he got DQ’ed for tape strategically placed under the #11 wrap. In the race, Hamlin led 21 laps, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and had a 6.1 average running position. In 2021 #2, Hamlin had a hot rod but finished an asterisk mark 14th. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #2, was running in 2nd with 4 laps to go but then with 2 to go he had to duck down pit road for fuel. In 2021 #1, Hamlin finished 4th, was the 4th fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In the 4th segment of the race when it was closing time, Hamlin had the 2nd fastest car on the track. In the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 1st, 2nd and 1st.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +700

Further Recommended Reading = Pocono Finish Projections, DraftKings Pocono Scoring Projections, FanDuel Pocono Scoring Projections 

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 2nd/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Pocono Outlook – At Pocono, Martin Truex Jr. will be going for the “Home Track Trifecta”, already having won at Dover and New Hampshire this year. I think he has a great chance to pull it off. Truex is fresh off a dominant win, Pocono has been a great track for him and the #19 team has elite speed, with Truex ranking in the top 2 in terms of Total Speed Rankings in 4 of the last 5 races this year. In practice, Truex had the 2nd best 5-lap average.
Pocono Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. is a 2-time winner at Pocono who’s been elite. Over the last six races minus race #1 2021, Truex has a 7.4 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 11 every race. Last year, Truex finished 7th in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, had an 11.6 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 10th. In 2021 #2, Truex won Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, led 19 laps, had an 8.8 average running position and then finished 11th when the checkered flag waved. In 2021 #1, Truex finished 18th, but I’m not going to read into that result too much. I think Truex tanked his performance because of the invert. In the three Pocono races prior to that, Truex had results of 10th, 6th and 3rd.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +500

3) William Byron
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Pocono Outlook – At Pocono, William Byron will be a factor. Byron currently has back-to-back misleading results here but “Performance Wise”, he’s been a top five contender for three straight races. Overall at Pocono minus his first start, Byron has an 8.4 average finish.
Pocono Track Record Breakdown – William Byron ranks as one of the best performers at Pocono in recent races, even though he has back-to-back misleading 12th’s. Last year when the series visited Pocono, Byron was in the midst of a slump, and his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Byron finished 6th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 and then finished 12th when the checkered flag waved. On lap 120 Byron was running in 4th, but then during his green flag pit stop on lap 125 he got an equipment interference penalty. In terms of speed stats, Byron was the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and ranked 9th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2021 #2, Byron had a great car and was the leader until 3 to go when he had to come in for a splash of gas which led to his 12th. Additionally, Byron won Stage #2, led 22 laps and had a skewed 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In Pocono #1 2021, Byron finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 13 laps, had a 7.3 average running position and then finished 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the six Pocono races prior to that, Byron had results of 3rd, 7th, 14th, 4th, 9th and 6th.
DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +600