Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Erik Jones
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Erik Jones has shown potential at Richmond in the past, but it’s been pretty brutal to him in the results column recently and over the last seven races he’s finished 19th or worse. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Jones has the 28th best Total Speed Ranking, but I’ll note the #43 is starting to run better and he recently finished 11th at New Hampshire with the help of pit strategy, so perhaps there’s some hope. Realistically at Richmond, I think he’s about a 20th place driver who has marginal upside.
Richmond Track History – This spring at Richmond, Erik Jones was junk and finished 31st. In the race, Jones had a 29.8 average running position and then ranked 33rd for Green Flag Speed, Speed Late In A Run and Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Jones finished a DNF 35th after crashing shortly after the restart in the final Stage. On lap 218 just prior to his demise, Jones was running in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 23rd. In spring 2022, Jones had a forgettable afternoon. In the race, Jones finished 23rd, had a 17.4 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three Richmond races prior to that, Jones had results of 21st, 19th and 22nd.

AJ Allmendinger
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Richmond has been pretty brutal to AJ Allmendinger on the Cup level and in his only two Cup starts since 2018, he’s 2 for 2 at finishing 27th. Over his last six combined starts, he’s finished 26th or worse every race. That said, I think Allmendinger has upside. The #16 team is running well and clicking off respectable results and at the two most recent shorter-flat tracks visited he’s come home with results of 14th (Gateway) and 19th (New Hampshire). In terms of Total Speed Rankings at shorter-flat tracks this year, Allmendinger ranks 25th over the combined events.
Richmond Track History – Close your eyes when you look at AJ Allmendinger’s Richmond track record. This spring, Allmendinger didn’t run well and finished 27th. Additionally, Allmendinger had the 27th best Speed Ranking and a 28.1 average running position. I’ll note, he was caught speeding during the Stage #1 caution, but he was running back in the mid 20’s anyways. In spring 2022 in his next most recent race, Allmendinger also struggled and finished 27th. Additionally, Allmendinger had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and a 28.2 average running position. Over his next three races which go back to 2018 when he piloted the #47, Allmendinger had results of 29th, 27th and 26th.

Justin Haley
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Richmond hasn’t been a bright spot on the schedule for Justin Haley and in 4 of his 5 starts he’s finished 27th or worse. That said, I think things could be different this time around. At the two most recent shorter-flat tracks visited, Haley’s walked away with results of 16th (Gateway) and 17th (New Hampshire). I’ll note at the first two shorter-flat tracks visited this year; Haley finished in the high-twenties. At Richmond, I would conservatively view Haley as a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Richmond Track History –Richmond hasn’t been a good track for Justin Haley and over his five combined starts his average finish is 28.8, and he’s never cracked the top 20. This spring when the #31 team wasn’t as competitive, Haley finished 29th, had a 27.1 average running position and had the 28th best Total Speed Ranking. Last summer in the heat, Haley had his best afternoon at, “The Action Track.” In the race, Haley finished 21st, had a 23.1 average running position and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Haley was just uncompetitive. In the race, Haley finished 29th and had a 25.7 average running position.

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