Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Richmond for the second time in 2023 for the Cook Out 400! Richmond is a high-tire wear .75-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” Other shorter-flat tracks visited this year that are good to look back for in terms of correlation are New Hampshire, Phoenix and Gateway (Shorter-Flat Track 2023 Total Speed Rankings).

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Richmond Practice Notes, Richmond 5,10,15 and 20 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet and Richmond Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings.

Here’s the Richmond Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Richmond Full Field Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 10th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Martin Truex Jr is a super-elite performer at Richmond and on Sunday, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. Truex was fast in practice and his track record is impeccable. Over the last nine Richmond races, Truex has 3 wins, a 3.9 average finish, a 5.2 average running position, the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 86.9 laps per race. This spring, Truex likely would’ve notched his 4th Richmond win if a late caution didn’t come out. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has been impressive. Truex just smoked the field at New Hampshire and over the last three combined races he ranks #1 for Total Speed Rankings, Driver Rating, Average Running Position (6.2) and average finish (5.7). Another attribute I like about Truex is his recent form. Truex has ranked in the top 2 in terms of Total Speed Rankings in 5 of the last 6 races and since Dover minus Darlington, Chicago and Atlanta his average finish is 3.0.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – At Richmond, Martin Truex is always a factor and in 3 of the last 4 races, he’s ranked #1 in PROS Rankings for subjectively having the best car. This spring, I think Truex was the best and if a late caution didn’t come out which put him at a tire disadvantage, I think he had the race won. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #2, led 56 laps, had a 6.7 average running position and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Last summer, Truex had an off race by his standards and finished 7th. In spring 2022, I think Truex had the best car, but victory lane eluded him because of pit strategy from others. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 80 laps, had a race best 3.9 average running position, had the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In the six Richmond races prior to that, Truex had results of 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd.
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2) Denny Hamlin
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Richmond and on Sunday, the #11 will be tough to beat. At “The Action Track”, Hamlin’s a 4-time winner and in 12 of the last 15 races, he’s finished in the top 6. In April at Richmond, Hamlin might’ve just had the best car (asterisk mark result), and over the last five races minus this spring his average finish is 2.3. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has been elite, having the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the best average running position (6.3). In practice, Hamlin was a speed standout and had one of the fastest cars over a long run.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track and he’s consistently performed at a super-elite level. This spring, Hamlin arguably had the best car but finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Hamlin got a speeding penalty in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a slow pit stop while leading in the last Stage which dropped him from 1st to 12th and then was caught speeding again near the end. Despite that laundry list of problems, Hamlin led 71 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Last summer, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 22 laps and then finished 4th. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2022, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, it was a “fresh tire at the end pit strategy victory.” In the race, Hamlin only led 5 laps, had an 8.2 average running position and because of his pit strategy, his speed analytics are completely skewed (14th best Total Speed Ranking). In 2021, Hamlin was the class of the field. He didn’t reach victory lane, but he went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd, leading 197 laps in one race and 207 in the other.
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Further Recommended Reading – Richmond Finish Projections, DraftKings Richmond Scoring Projections, FanDuel Richmond Scoring Projections 

3) Kevin Harvick
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Richmond Outlook – Kevin Harvick is the defending summer champ at Richmond and on Sunday, there’s no doubt the #4 will be fast and he’ll be a factor. At “The Action Track”, Harvick’s a 4-time winner and in 14 of the last 17 races he’s finished in the top 8. In the Next Gen specifically at Richmond, Harvick has a series best 2.7 average finish. In terms of shorter-flat track prowess, Harvick ranks among the best and since 2022 minus Gateway 2022, Harvick has a 5.1 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, the 4th best Driver Rating and a 6.0 average finish. In practice, the #4 was fast and ranked as one of the best over a long run.
Richmond Track Record Breakdown – At Richmond, Kevin Harvick has been elite and since 2018 minus spring 2021 where he crashed late while running in 6th, Harvick has a series best 4.7 average finish. This spring at Richmond, Harvick finished 4th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had an 8.3 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Harvick had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for Green Flag Speed. In 2022 when the Next Gen made its debut, Harvick went 2 for 2 at finishing in the top 2. Last summer, the #4 was at its best when the trophy was on the line, and Harvick raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Harvick finished 4th in Stage #2, led 55 laps, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Harvick had a great car and finished runner-up.
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +550