Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Justin Haley
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, look for Justin Haley to be a high-teens to low-twenties driver. I view Kansas to have the most correlation, and Haley finished 18th this spring. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks over the combined events, Haley has a 15.5 average finish, a 22.5 average running position and the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking.
Michigan Track History – Justin Haley has two races on his resume at Michigan and over his combined starts his average finish is 21st. Last year, Haley finished 17th, had a 21.2 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. Back in 2021 when he drove the #77, Haley finished 25th.

Erik Jones
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Erik Jones and the #43 team are running better so there’s hope, but I think it’s best to view Erik Jones as about a 20th place driver who has marginal upside. This year in 3 of his 4 races at high-speed intermediate tracks, Erik Jones has finished in either 19th or 21st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings for the year on this track type, Jones ranks 22nd.
Michigan Track History – Michigan is Erik Jones’s home track and he’s shown prowess here. Jones ran well last year and in 50% of his starts he’s finished in the top 13. In 2022 when the #43 team was more competitive, Jones had a strong showing and ran well throughout the event. In the race, Jones started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had an 8.4 average running position and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Jones ranked 8th for Green Flag Speed and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2021 in his first MIS start in the #43, Jones finished 18th and had a 23.7 average running position. In 2020 #2 in the #20 car, Jones was fast early, but came home a clunker 27th. In the race he finished 5th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 but in the final Stage he had some sort of issue late. On lap 142 he was in 13th, but then on lap 150 he was back in 25th. Additionally, Jones had a 9.8 average running position and the 14th best Total Speed Ranking (speed over the segments were 5th, 7th, 11th and then 26th). In race #1 2020, Jones ran well. He finished 6th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, had a 6.6 average running position, the 6th best driver rating and finished 11th. On lap 150 before the final caution came out, Jones was running in 6th.

Austin Cindric
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, Austin Cindric doesn’t have a track record to go off of because his race was so short last year, but I would look for him to finish in the 20’s. In terms of upside, I think he could potentially finish in the high-teens but that’s a roll of the dice. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Cindric snuck in a 6th at Las Vegas (was in 14th with 4 to go before a late caution came out) and then in the other three races he finished 28th or worse. I’ll note, I view Kansas to be the most similar track visited and he was running in the high-teens there (19th) before he got into the wall and lost a wheel.
Michigan Track History – Last year at Michigan, Austin Cindric had a short afternoon and crashed early which led to his 37th. In the race, Cindric started 5th, dropped back to 13th on lap 21 when the competition caution came out, pitted, and then during the restart he crashed which marked the end of his race(37th).

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