Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is a 2.0-mile master and at Michigan, I think the road to victory lane goes thru him. Larson has 5-wins at tracks of this length, and 3 of those have come at Michigan. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Larson hasn’t had an incident free race yet, but he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in 2nd in races where his problem happened in the closing laps. In both of those races, Larson was the race leader until things went south. I view Kansas as the best barometer and at that venue, Larson had the race won until Hamlin junked him on the final lap (led 85 laps, 3rd best Total Speed Ranking). In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings in 2023, Larson ranks 3rd.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Larson has been elite at Michigan. He’s a three-time winner and over his last three races his average finish is 4.3. Last year, Larson had a strong showing and finished 7th, but I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then during that Stage caution he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the low 20’s. The #5 didn’t lack speed and in the race, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, the 5th best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Larson did have a hiccup along the way. While leading on lap 158, Larson ran out of fuel. I’ll note, it wasn’t a huge issue, but it certainly didn’t help. In summer 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson finished 3rd.

Denny Hamlin
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat. Michigan has been a great track for Hamlin, the #11 was subjectively the best car last year and I have no doubt he’ll once again be fielding a fast Toyota. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking over the combined events and at Kansas which I view to have the most correlation, he raced his way to victory lane and had the best Total Speed Ranking for the afternoon. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Michigan Track History – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin is a 2-time winner who’s performed at an elite -level. Over the last five Michigan races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups, he’s finished in the top 6 every race and his 3.6 average finish is tied for the best. Last year, Denny Hamlin arguably had the best car, but he finished 3rd due to his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution he was penalized for too many men over the wall which dropped him back to the high-teens. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed, #1 for Speed Late In A Run and was tied for #1 in Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Hamlin had a great car and ran well throughout the race. In the event, Hamlin finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.3 average running position, led 10 laps and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked #1 and his speed over the segments were 4th, 5th, 4th and 2nd. In the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 2nd, 6th and 2nd.

Bubba Wallace
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, look for Bubba Wallace to be fast and be a factor. Wallace finished runner-up in this race last year, and I have no doubt he’s primed to once again be a contender. I view Kansas to have the most correlation, and Wallace won there last fall and finished 4th this spring. Over the last three races held at high-speed intermediate tracks this year, Wallace is 3 for 3 at finishing 4th. On Sunday, look for Wallace to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. 
Michigan Track History – Last year at Michigan, Bubba Wallace had a rocket and finished runner-up. In the race, Wallace started on the pole, led 22 laps, had a 7.9 average running position and then ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. The #23 was strong throughout, and his result is the real deal. If you’re looking to pick Wallace, I wouldn’t bother looking into any of his other performances in which he finished 19th or worse in 7 of the 8.

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