Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400! MIS is a gigantic 2.0-mile oval, where the surface is smooth, tire wear is minimal, and horsepower is king. In my opinion, Michigan is perhaps the purest test to see what teams can find speed.
Four high-speed intermediate tracks were already visited this year (Track Type Total Speed Rankings), and I wouldn’t overlook any, but I would put special emphasis on studying Kansas.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held for Michigan. Teams had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Michigan Practice Notes, Michigan Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings and Michigan 5, 10 and 15 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Michigan Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin will be a factor and there’s a lot of things to like about him. Hamlin ranks as one of the premiere performers at Michigan in recent races, the #11 ranked #1 in PROS Rankings for subjectively being the strongest last year and he’s been fast at high-speed intermediate tracks in 2023. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking over the combined races and at Kansas which I view to have the most correlation, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane and had the best Total Speed Ranking.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin is a 2-time winner who’s consistently performed at an elite level. Over the last five Michigan races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups, he’s finished in the top 6 every race and his 3.6 average finish is tied for the best. Last year, I thought Hamlin subjectively had the best car, but he finished 3rd thanks to a late speeding penalty. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution he was penalized for too many men over the wall. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed, #1 for Speed Late In A Run and was tied for #1 in Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, the #11 was a hot rod. In the race, Hamlin finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.3 average running position, led 10 laps and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked #1 and his speed over the segments were 4th, 5th, 4th and 2nd. In the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 2nd, 6th and 2nd.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +850
Further Recommended Reading = Michigan Finish Projections, DraftKings Michigan Scoring Projections, FanDuel Michigan Scoring Projections
2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Michigan but that could change on Sunday. The #19 is one of the fastest cars, week-in-week out and I have no doubt that will once again be the case this weekend. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Truex has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and a series best 7.3 average finish. At Kansas which I view to have the most correlation, Truex had the 2nd best Speed Ranking and then finished 8th. In practice, the #19 looked strong.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Michigan, but he’s come close and ranks among the best. Currently at Michigan, Truex has six straight top tens and his 4.8 average finish over that stretch is tied for being the 2nd best. In 5 of the last 6, Truex has finished between 3rd to 6th. Last year, Truex finished 6th and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Truex damaged his car early and dropped like a rock, but he battled back and finished 10th. Over the next four MIS races, Truex had results of 3rd, 3rd, 3rd and 4th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +800
3) William Byron
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Michigan Outlook – At Michigan, William Byron will be tough to beat. Byron nearly raced his way to victory lane in 2021, and this year at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been one of the premiere performers. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Byron has results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd over the three most recent races and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is the 4th best. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. In practice, Byron had the best 10-lap average and liked his car.
Michigan Track Record Breakdown – William Byron has been strong at Michigan. Byron nearly raced his way to victory lane in 2021 and over the last five races his 9.6 average finish ranks as the 6th best. Last year, Byron had a solid showing but keep in mind that race came during an extended slump of his. In the race, Byron finished 7th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had an 11.9 average running position, the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 12th when the checkered flag waved. In 2021, Byron nearly raced his way to victory lane but didn’t come up clutch when the late cautions ensued. In the race, Byron finished 5th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had an 8.3 average running position, led 18 laps and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, the race was likely Byron’s for the taking, but Blaney passed him during a late restart which led to his 2nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd and his speed over the segments were 6th, 8th, 1st and 1st. In the three races prior to that, Byron had results of 12th, 14th and 8th.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $11,500/ DK Odds To Win +850
