Indianapolis Road Course Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at the Indianapolis Road Course for the Verizon 200. The Indy Road Course is a 14 turn, 2.4-mile road course that incorporates high-speed and low-speed road course elements. Mass chaos has ruled the day in the past here late, but by Denny Hamlin’s professional opinion at least turn #1 shouldn’t be as hectic anymore thanks to the restart zone getting moved.

The Indy Road Course will be the 4th road course visited in 2023 (Road Course Total Speed Rankings in 2023), so it’s always a good idea to go back and study those races. In terms of correlation, I would lean COTA > Sonoma > Chicago Street. You could flip flop Sonoma and Chicago if you want, but COTA has the most correlation by far in my opinion.

On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held for Indianapolis. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Indy Practice Notes (Some averages there) and Indy Lap By Lap Speed Rankings.

Here’s the Indianapolis Verizon 200 Starting Lineup.

Indianapolis Road Course Full Field Rankings

1) Tyler Reddick
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Indianapolis Road Course Scoop – Tyler Reddick is a 3-time road course winner and at Indianapolis, the road to victory lane likely goes thru the defending champ. Reddick put on a display of domination last year en route to victory lane, and since 2022 at road courses, Reddick’s Road Course Total Speed Ranking ranks as the best. In 2023 at Road Courses, Reddick has the best Speed Ranking over the combined events and that includes a dominant COTA victory which I would argue has the most correlation to Indy. In the Next Gen at “Rovals”, Reddick is 2 for 2 at having the best Total Speed Ranking and over the last three his average finish is a series best 3.7. In practice, Reddick clearly had the best car in Group A and he was happy with how it performed, so you know he’ll be dangerous. If the #45 team can execute a clean race, look for Reddick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Indianapolis Track Record Breakdown – Last year at Indy RC, Tyler Reddick smoked the field and there’s no debate he was the best. In the race, Reddick started 1st, finished 1st, led 38 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and was the fastest driver in segment #4, when the trophy was on the line. Additionally, Reddick had the best Driver Rating, a 3.7 average running position and ran the most fastest laps. In 2021, Reddick was a points racer and was collected in some late carnage which led to his 21st. “Performance wise”, I would say Reddick was a top ten performer (9th best total Speed Ranking).
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +330 (Saturday 5PM)

Further Recommended Reading = Indy Finish Projections, DraftKings Indy Scoring Projections, FanDuel Indy Scoring Projections

2) Chase Elliott
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Indianapolis Road Course Scoop – Chase Elliott is a 7-time road course winner and at Indy RC, the #9 will be tough to beat. Since 2022 at road courses minus the Charlotte Roval where late cautions robbed him of what looked like certain victory (4 second lead with 8 to go) and Indy RC (was in 2nd before late wildness kicked into gear), Chase Elliott has a 4.3 average finish. This year at road courses, Elliott’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the top five (4th place avg. finish). In practice, Elliott had a good car and said it was doing what he wanted. Elliott said he has somethings to work on, but he’s a rhythm racer at road courses and gets better over the course of races.
Indianapolis Track Record Breakdown – At Indy, Chase Elliott has performed at an elite-level and is 2 for 2 at running in 2nd in both races before late chaos ensued. In the results column though, his average finish is 10th. Last year, Elliott was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 16th after getting spun out during a late restart with 3 to go while running in 2nd. In the race, Elliott had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and over the final quarter of the race he ranked 3rd in terms of speed. In 2021, “Performance Wise”, I would rank Elliott as being the 2nd best. In the race, Elliott finished 4th, had a 4.8 average running position, had the 2nd best driver rating and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. With 14 laps to go before late cautions and mass mayhem ensued, Elliott was running in 2nd behind Kyle Larson.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +550

3) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 12th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Indianapolis Road Course Scoop – The #19 team is the best team in NASCAR right now and at Indy RC, look for Truex to be a factor. Truex has a pair of misleading results here, but he’s run well in both races. This year at road courses, Truex has the 11th best Total Speed Ranking which is highlighted by his Sonoma display of domination. In practice, Truex was happy with his car and liked his speed over a long run. Truex’s 10-lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
Indianapolis Track Record Breakdown – At Indy, Truex Jr. is 2 for 2 at getting swept up in late mayhem, so you can disregard his 18th place average finish. In terms of where he was running before late mayhem ensued in both races, his average position in the running order was 8th. Last year, Truex was running in 11th with 3 laps to go, but then during that restart he had contact which cut his tire which led to his asterisk mark 21st. Additionally, Truex had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14th place average running position. In 2021, Truex had a very eventful afternoon which included an early cut tire. Truex legitimately rebounded and was up to 4th with just 14 to go before all the mass mayhem ensued. On lap 76 right after a debris caution while running in 9th (before the “Big One”), Truex spun. Then on the opening lap for overtime #1 under green, Truex crashed. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 15th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 5th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +800