Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Watkins Glen for the “Go Bowling At The Glen!” Watkins Glen is a high-speed road course where drivers really get up on the wheel and race aggressively. Some have described Watkins Glen as the “Intermediate Track Of Road Courses.”
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Watkins Glen Practice Notes, Watkins Glen Lap By Lap Speed Rankings and Watkins Glen Practice 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Watkins Glen Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. Take note, starting up front at Watkins Glen has been a huge advantage and 11 of the last 12 winners have started between 1st to 6th.
Watkins Glen Full Field Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Watkins Glen Outlook – Kyle Larson has back-to-back wins at Watkins Glen and on Sunday, I think he has a great chance to extend his streak to three! Larson is one of the best here, and in practice the #5 was one of the fastest. This year at road courses, Larson has the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and minus COTA which was anything but incident free for him, his average finish is 6.6. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has back-to-back wins at Watkins Glen in the #5, and over the last four races his average finish is 4.0. Last year, Larson had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after body slamming Chase Elliott during the final restart for the lead. In addition to winning, Larson led 5 laps, had a 7.7 average running position and had the fastest car over the final quarter of the race. In 2021, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 27 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the two races prior to that in his old ride, Larson had results of 8th and 6th.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +650
2) William Byron
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Watkins Glen Outlook – Look for William Byron to be a factor at Watkins Glen. Byron’s run great here in 3 of his 4 starts, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t have another strong showing. In practice, the #24 was a stopwatch standout, with Byron having the best 5 and 10 lap average in a stacked Group A.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – At Watkins Glen, William Byron has performed at a high-level and in 3 of his 4 races he’s been a top ten contender, “Performance Wise”. That said, Byron wasn’t good last year. In 2022, Byron started in the back, finished 22nd, had a 21.8 average running position and had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Byron finished 6th, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Byron looked great, but he also caused his own demise. In the race he started 2nd, finished 5th in Stage #1, but then during the Stage #1 caution he showed his displeasure to Kyle Busch and ran into the back of the #18. That absolutely destroyed the front of the #24 which ruined what looked like a promising afternoon and led to his 21st place finish. In 2018, Byron had a great track debut. He finished 8th, earned the 9th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position.
DraftKings $8,800 / FanDuel $8,500 / DK Odds To Win +550
Further Recommended Reading = Watkins Glen Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Watkins Glen Scoring Projections, FanDuel Watkins Glen Scoring Projections
3) Michael McDowell
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Watkins Glen Outlook – Fresh off a dominant win at Indy, look for Michael McDowell to once again be a factor at Watkins Glen. McDowell had a stellar showing last year and then when you pair it with his body of work at road courses, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have a strong showing. In 2023 at road courses, McDowell has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best average finish (6.8). In practice, the #34 was one of fastest.
Watkins Glen Track Record Breakdown – If you’re looking to pick Michael McDowell at Watkins Glen, I don’t see any relevance to study any further back than last year. In 2022 at “The Glen”, McDowell finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 14 laps, was tied for a race best 4.4 average running position and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, McDowell had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run.
DraftKings $9,600 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +850
