Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Martin Truex Jr.
Darlington Fantasy Spin – At Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. is always a factor and on Sunday night, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Truex is a two-time winner and if the last two races would’ve been incident free for him, there’s a great chance Truex would currently have back-to-back Darlington wins. Since 2020 at Darlington despite having four asterisk mark results over the last eight races, Truex has the best driver rating, the best average running position (6.9) and he’s averaged leading the most laps per race (85.3). On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. has been a super-elite performer. He’s had quite a bit of asterisk mark results recently but “Performance Wise”, Truex could easily have back-to-back wins and could’ve potentially won 4 of the last 5. This spring, Truex might’ve just been the best, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Truex won Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 when he was making a last lap pass on Chastain for the Stage win, the #1 bounced off the wall and into Truex which led to the #19 spinning which led to his 10th for that Stage. That put Truex behind, but he battled back. With 14 to go, Truex was up to 3rd but then he crashed during a restart which led to his 31st. Despite his multiple problems, Truex had a 5.2 average running position, led the most laps (145), had the best Green Flag Speed and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Truex also nearly won again but on lap 328 while leading, Truex developed water pump issues which marked the end of his race leading to his 31st. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 48 laps, had the 2nd best Green Flag Speed and the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Truex was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Truex led 28 laps, finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.4 average running position but then in the final Stage things went south for him. On lap 260 he was in 4th, but then during that restart he spun and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Truex ranked 4th. In 2021, Truex finished 4th in the fall and then in the spring he put on a display of domination and raced his way to victory lane (led 248 laps).

Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s never won here, but he’s had dominant performances and knocked on the door to victory lane on numerous occasions. Over Larson’s last four Darlington incident free races, he’s had results of 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. This spring, Kyle Larson might’ve just had the best car, but victory lane eluded him yet again. The last three Darlington races have been anything but incident free for him, so hopefully Larson’s due for a smooth race. Since 2022 at high-wear intermediate tracks, Larson has 2-wins and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 4th best.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Kyle Larson ranks as one of the premiere performers despite never having won. The last three races here have been like a buzz-saw for him, so hopefully he’ll finally have another smooth race. This spring, Larson might’ve just had the best car but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and looked to have the race in hand until late mayhem ensued which brought him back to the competition. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 2nd and then 1st.  Last fall, Larson had some sort of issue under his hood which dropped him a handful of laps down around lap 79, and then later spun out on lap 192 and hit the wall, but by some miracle he finished 12th. In spring 2022, Larson was one of the best, but his race wasn’t incident free, and he finished last (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th after driving up thru the field, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In the four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish, a 4.0 average running position and averaged leading 121 laps per race.

Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is always tough to beat at Darlington and on Sunday night, there’s no question he’ll be a factor. In this crown jewel event, Hamlin brings his A-game and in the last two Southern 500’s, Hamlin’s had results of 1st and 2nd. At “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 54% of the time and in the top ten 73% of the time. Over the last five Darlington races minus this spring (got into the wall early) and last spring where he had one of the best cars but his race wasn’t incident free, Hamlin has a 2.7 average finish. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’s arguably the best. This spring, Denny Hamlin finished 12th but personally, I wouldn’t read into his afternoon at all. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that his car took off on him and he got into the wall. A few laps after that the caution came out. After that, Hamlin was just never a factor and that 12th can be chalked up to attrition. Last fall, the #11 was fast but Hamlin came up just short at the end. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 2nd, had a 5.4 average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Hamlin was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south. Hamlin’s pit strategy had him shuffled back to 9th on lap 248 (stayed out on older tires longer than others) and then shortly after that a caution came out and he had a slow stop that dropped him back to 18th. Right after that, Hamlin was caught up in the “Big One” following a restart. In 2021, Hamlin led 146 laps and raced his way to victory lane in the fall and then finished 5th in the spring.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions >The Low Tier