Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Aric Almirola
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Aric Almirola is a capable performer, but all too often, trouble finds him which leads to a poor finish. Over the last eight Bristol races, Almirola has one top ten and then in the other seven races he’s finished 18th or worse. I’ll note, the #10 team hasn’t been as bad as you’re thinking and since Pocono minus the road courses his average finish is 11.7. On Saturday night, I think he’s a high-risk/ little-reward driver who isn’t for the faint of heart.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol, Aric Almirola has a little upside but as you just read, in 7 of the last 8 he’s finished 18th or worse. Last year, Almirola won the pole, led 36 laps but finished a clunker 28th. I’ll note, Almirola’s race wasn’t incident free. On lap 90 when he faded back to 10th he spun which brought out the caution. Then later, Almirola was in 19th on lap 412 but then shortly after that his race was over, due to a “Power Steering” issue. In 2021, Almirola finished 18th, had a 13.9 average running position and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Almirola’s race wasn’t incident free, and he was black flagged around lap 176 for when his car was smoking (loose oil-line). I’ll note, he was running in 11th on lap 396, but he’s a driver who faded down the stretch. In fall 2020, Almirola finished 7th in Stage #2, 5th overall, had a 9.7 average running position and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Almirola had a fast car, but finished 29th. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, had a 7.7 average running position and was running in 7th with 38 laps to go. Then with 34 laps to go, Almirola was swept up in a multi-car accident that doomed him to his poor result.

Carson Hocevar
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Carson Hocevar will be returning to competition yet again driving the Legacy #42. Hocevar has outperformed expectations across the board in this ride (18.5 average finish), and I think he probably has good odds to come home with another respectable result if he can avoid trouble. On Saturday night, I’m going to view Hocevar as a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol in the Truck series over his three starts, Hocevar has 1 top ten and then in his two other races he finished in the high-teens. Last year, Hocevar finished 19th and then in his two starts prior to that his finishes were 6th and 17th.

Justin Haley
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, I would view Justin Haley as a low to mid-twenties driver. That’s basically the current competitive state of the #31, and in 5 of the last 6 races heading into the weekend he’s finished between 21st to 24th. I’ll note, Haley wasn’t bad last year at Bristol, but this team just isn’t running well since Haley announced his departure.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol, Justin Haley had a solid showing last year, so there’s hope if you’re targeting the #31. Last year, Haley finished 12th, had a 15.6 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 in his debut, Haley finished 36th after crashing before the midpoint in a multi-car wreck. In the two segments he competed, Haley ranked 31st and 31st in terms of speed.

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