Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Saturday night under the lights, NASCAR will be racing at Bristol! Bristol is “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile” and it’s been described as flying a jet fighter in a gymnasium.  This week’s race at Bristol also marks the end of round #1 of the Playoffs, and four drivers will get eliminated! Desperate drivers do desperate things, so look for the intensity to be turned up another dial.

Another element that’s been added to the equation is the weather! The green flag start time has been moved up to 6:35 PM. Over the course of the evening, the rain odds go up, so this race could be rain shortened.

On Friday, practice was held for Bristol. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Bristol Practice Notes, Bristol Practice Speeds and Bristol 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Bristol Starting Lineup/ Qualifying results.

Bristol Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Bristol Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner at Bristol who should prominently be on your short list of favorites. In terms of “Performance”, Hamlin’s been a factor to win 3 of the last 6 “Thunder Valley” races. In practice, Hamlin liked his car and said he was really happy with his speed. Hamlin also caught the eye of Byron’s crew chief as being one of the best over a long run.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is one of the premiere performers at “Thunder Valley.” Since 2019 minus a pair of misleading results in 2020, Hamlin has a 6th place average finish. Last year, Hamlin had multiple problems but still finished 9th. In the race, Hamlin had a flat tire and got into the wall while running in 3rd on lap 235, and then later around lap 435 he had a slow pit stop while running in 6th. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 9th, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking, the 6th best Green Flag Speed, the 7th best Driver Rating and an 8.7 average running position. In 2021, Hamlin was top 3 good, but finished an asterisk mark 9th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 65 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 399 while running in 2nd, Hamlin had a flat tire. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2020, Hamlin performed at a high-level in both races, but had a pair of asterisk mark results. In summer 2020, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, was in 5th on lap 204, but then on lap 216 he was shown to have a ton of damage to his nose after he ran into the back of Truex which led to his asterisk mark 21st. In spring 2020, Hamlin arguably had the best car, but finished an asterisk mark 17th after having problems late while leading with 12 laps to go (Spun and then hit by BJ McLeod). Despite his problem, Hamlin led 131 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and had a 5.2 average running position. In summer 2019, Hamlin reeled in DiBenedetto for the win with 11 laps to go for the win. In addition to finishing first, Hamlin led 79 laps. In spring 2019, Hamlin finished 5th.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +400

Further Recommended Reading – Bristol Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Bristol Scoring Projections, FanDuel Bristol Scoring Projections

2) Brad Keselowski 
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Bristol Outlook – Brad Keselowski is one of the premiere performers at Bristol and on Saturday night, look for Keselowski to be a top five contender who’ll compete for the win. Keselowski’s a three-time Bristol winner, and he might’ve just had the best car last summer when the #6 team wasn’t nearly as strong as they are now. One attribute you have to love about the #6 team is their weekly form and at “Ovals” since July, Keselowski has a series best 5.4 average finish. Bristol will be a wild race, and I have no doubt Keselowski will dial up the intensity and be a factor. In practice, Keselowski said his car drives really good but he did want more speed.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – At Bristol, Brad Keselowski is one of the best in the business and in recent races he’s performed at a super-elite level. Since summer 2019 minus fall 2020 where he lost power steering and a misleading result last summer where he had a flat tire while leading, Keselowski has 1 win and a 3.3 average finish. Keselowski has also frequently been dominant here and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s led +82 laps or more. Last year, the #6 was stout and Keselowski was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 13th. In the race, Keselowski won Stage #1, led 109 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 412 while leading, Keselowski had a flat tire and made an unexpected pit stop. In terms of speed stats, Keselowski ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and then 5th for both Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. In 2021, Keselowski finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and then 6th when the checkered flag waved. In fall 2020, Keselowski showed potential but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In that race he led 82 laps but lost power steering. In spring 2020, Keselowski had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after Elliott and Logano got together at the end. In addition to finishing 1st, Keselowski led 115 laps and earned the best driver rating. In fall 2019, Keselowski finished 3rd and led 91 laps. In spring 2019, Keselowski had a great car and was a contender, but finished a misleading 18th. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 40 laps, was the leader with 31 laps to go, but then during a caution with about 20 laps to go he got penalized for restarting incorrectly.
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +850

3) Chase Elliott
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Bristol Outlook – At Bristol, look for Chase Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Elliott’s never won a points paying race at “Thunder Valley” but he’s been one of the premiere performers. Elliott finished runner-up last year and he’s often flirted with victory lane. Over the last seven Bristol races among drivers who competed in every race, Elliott has the best average finish (10.7), the best average running position (6.2), the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading the 2nd most laps per race (60.4). In practice, the #9 was fast on the stopwatch.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – Chase Elliott has been elite at Bristol. Elliott’s never won a points paying race, but he’s come close to victory lane in 3 of the last 5 races and has an All-Star win in 2020. Last summer, the #9 was strong and Elliott finished runner-up. In the race, Elliott ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 7th for both Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Elliott might’ve just had the best car but with 35 laps to go while battling for the lead, Harvick had contact with Elliott which cut his tire and led to his misleading 25th. In the race, Elliott finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 129 laps, ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, Elliott won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 23 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 7th. I’ll note, that’s a misleading result. Elliott was hurt by a late caution during the pit cycle on lap 405 while running in 3rd. In spring 2020, Elliott had a great car, but finished an asterisk mark 22nd after wrecking while battling Logano for the lead with 3 laps to go. In the race, Elliott won the first two Stages, had a 4.5 average running position, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and led 88 laps.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $11,000 / DK Odds To Win +1100