Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Texas for a showdown to start the second round of the Playoffs. “The Round of 12” presents three tricky tracks, and Texas which was extremely wild last year is the most “Conventional” of the three, with the other two tracks being Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
Texas will be the fifth high-speed 1.5-mile track visited in 2023, so make sure you look back to those races (2023 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings).
On Saturday, practice was held for Texas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Texas Practice Notes and Texas 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the Texas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Texas Full Field Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 10th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Texas Outlook – At Texas, look for Denny Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Texas has been a great track for Hamlin and this year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin’s been the premiere performer. In 2023 at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking and “Performance Wise” he’s been a top five contender every race. At Kansas a few weeks back when everyone brought their A-game, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking, led 63 laps and had the race all but won until the late caution came out (finished 2nd). In practice, the #11 was fast and ranked 2nd overall in terms of 10,15 and 20-lap averages.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – At Texas, Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner who’s performed at an extremely high-level, but you need to break out asterisk marks for him in many of the recent races. Last year, Hamlin had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 10th. Around lap 268 under caution while running in 2nd, Byron spun him which dropped Hamlin back to 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and 8th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Hamlin finished 11th but that finish needs an asterisk mark too. With 21 laps to go he was running in 5th, but then with 19 to go he spun. Later, Hamlin was also involved in a wreck so that’s a great finish when you take his problems into account. In the race, Hamlin had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and a 7.5 average running position. In 2020 #2, Hamlin finished 9th. In 2020 #1, Hamlin had a great car and looked like a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 20th after his race fell apart over the closing 50 laps. With 49 to go he was running in 2nd, but then shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle, and then more problems happened to him after that back in traffic. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #2, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +400
Further Recommended Reading = Texas Finish Projections, DraftKings Texas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Texas Scoring Projections
2) Kyle Larson
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Texas Outlook – At Texas, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat. The #5 has shown up with speed throughout the Playoffs, and Texas won’t be an exception. So far in the Playoffs, Larson has a series best 2.3 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 2nd best. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Charlotte, Larson has a 2.7 average finish, a 5.5 average running position and he’s averaged leading 82.3 laps per race. In practice, the #5 was a standout and Larson ranked #1 in terms of 10,15 and 20 lap averages.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – In the Hendrick Motorsports #5 at Texas, Kyle Larson has thrived and over the last two races, Larson has a 5.0 average finish, a 6.3 average running position and the best driver rating. Last year, Larson started 9th, won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson had the field covered and put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a rare perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race. In other speed stats, Larson also ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +400
3) Bubba Wallace
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Texas Outlook – At Texas, look for polesitter, Bubba Wallace to be a factor. Wallace’s Texas track record is quite bad but in 2023 at high-speed 1.5’s, Wallace has been one of the premiere performers. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Wallace finished 4th in the first three races and then a few weeks ago at Kansas he had problems while running in 2nd. In terms of 2023 Total Speed Rankings at high-speed 1.5’s, Wallace ranks 8th despite it being skewed by Kansas #2.
Texas Track Record Breakdown – Texas has been tough on Bubba Wallace. Wallace finished 8th in his first start here, but in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished 23rd or worse. Last year, Wallace had a race to forget and finished 25th. On lap 17 while running in the mid-teens, Wallace told his team that his steering felt heavy which led to an unexpected pit stop. Additionally in the race, Wallace had a 22.2 average running position and the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Wallace crashed in the lap 30 “Big One” and finished 32nd. For that reason, I have no takeaways.
DraftKings $8,600 / FanDuel $8,200 / DK Odds To Win +1500
